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明明要加油 · 2024年05月25日

老师我看了所有的答案,没有解决我的疑问。

NO.PZ2021120102000009

问题如下:

An active investor enters a duration-neutral yield curve flattening trade that combines 2-year and 10-year Treasury positions. Under which of the following yield curve scenarios would you expect the investor to realize the greatest portfolio gain?

选项:

A.

Bear steepening

B.

bull flattening

C.

Yield curve inversion

解释:

C is correct.

A duration-neutral flattening trade involves a short 2-year Bond position and a long 10-year bond position, which have a matched duration or portfolio duration of zero. This portfolio will realize a gain if the slope of the yield curvethat is, the difference between short-term and long-term yieldsdeclines. Yield curve inversion is an extreme version of flattening in which the spread between long-term and short-term yields-to-maturity falls below zero.

The bear steepening in A involves an unchanged 2-year yield-to-maturity with a rise in the 10-year yield-to-maturity, causing a portfolio loss. The bull flattening in B combines a constant 2-year yield-to-maturity with lower 10-year rates, resulting in a gain on the 10-year bond position and an unchanged 2-year bond position.

答案是这么说的

【这道题说的是要用2年期与10年期债券构建一个duration neutral的策略,这种策略在收益率曲线flatten下获得最大收益,然后让选出合适的flatten情形。我们先分析duration neutral。要想duration neutral,2年期债与10年期债肯定是相反头寸,即一个是Long,一个是short。】

读到这里,我是明白的,因为duration neutral 也就是组合的duration为0,那么两年期债券和十年期债券肯定是相反的头寸,通过一定比例调整后,组合的duration 是0。


接下来,答案说:

【如果想在收益率曲线flatten下有利可图,可以判断2年期是short头寸,10年期是Long头寸(假设收益率曲线下降,2年期利率下降的少,10年期利率下降的多,也就是bull flatten,显然,只有long 10年期,short 2年期,才会在duration neutral的条件下有收益,若long 1年期,short 10年期,是有亏损的)】

读到这里我就不明白了,为啥收益率曲线flatten下,一定是short 2年期债券,long 10年期债券呢。short 10年期 long 2年期债券,也可以实现duration neutral啊?

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发亮_品职助教 · 2024年05月25日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


题干有个大前提,这个策略是:Duration-neutral yield curve flattening trade,这是专门针对Yield curve flattening的策略。


Duration-neutral说明是Long/short策略,而Yield curve flattening trade就告诉我们Long哪个期限以及Short哪个期限。因为Yield curve flattening trade是专门针对收益率曲线Flattening的策略。


已知收益率曲线Flattening是短期利率相对上升,长期利率相对下降【注意这里讨论的是利率相对变化,如果短期利率下降,长期利率下降幅度更大,这是Flattening,在Long/short策略里,由于短期利率下降幅度小,长期利率下降幅度更大,和长期对比可以看成是短期相对上升,长期相对下降】,Flattening使得曲线变得更加平缓。


针对这种策略,必须是Long长期、Short短期,因为只有这样才会盈利。


如果是Long短期、Short长期,如Long 2-year, short 10-year,在长期利率相对下降时亏损,在短期利率相对上升时亏损【在Flattening时产生亏损】,所以这样的策略是不适合Yield curve flattening的。

所以Long短期、Short长期就不是Yield curve flattening trade


注意Duration-neutral Yield curve flattening策略一定是Long长期、short短期的策略。

还有Duration-neutral Yield curve steepening策略一定是Long短期、Short长期的策略。因为Yield curve steepening是短期利率相对下降,长期利率相对上升,导致曲线更陡峭。在这种曲线变动下,Short长期盈利,Long短期也盈利。


所以题干说针对Yield curve flattening的策略【Yield curve flattening trade】,实际已经告诉了我们Long/short的期限分别是什么。我们得自己分析出来。


题干有时候会说利率发生yield curve flattening,有时候(如本题)会说构建Yield curve flattening trade,那说trade时,实际上已经告诉了我们Long/short的期限分别是啥了。



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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

明明要加油 · 2024年05月26日

我明白了老师。 回想起何老师上课说的例子,如果steepen 就是长期相对短期上涨更多,那么就是short 长期,long 短期。反之,如果flatten 就是长期相对短期下降更多,那么就是long长期 short 短期。 我是不是可以理解为,因为长短期有一个相对涨跌的概念,所以应该是long一个相对有利的short一个相对不利的,来做long short的交易咯?

发亮_品职助教 · 2024年05月26日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


我是不是可以理解为,因为长短期有一个相对涨跌的概念,所以应该是long一个相对有利的short一个相对不利的,来做long short的交易咯?


对的,这就是Long/Short策略的精髓。Long/Short策略就专门关注曲线上的利率相对改变,就是针对利率相对改变的策略。所以分析的时候,直接关注曲线上利率的相对变化即可。

如Steepening就是短期相对下降,长期相对上升,然后再针对性地做Long/short策略。


同时,Long/short达成Duration-neutral,组合的Duration=0,那么组合不受曲线的平行移动影响。只要组合不受平行移动的影响,那么就可以专注于曲线上各个期限的相对改变。


通过Long一个相对有利的期限,Short一个相对不利的曲线,其实赚取的就是曲线上不同利率点位的相对变化收益。


这个策略就是专门针对曲线上非平行移动,曲线上利率的相对改变的。只要曲线上的利率有相对的改变,那这种Long/short一定可以盈利。分析时关注利率的相对变化即可

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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!

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