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Sofia nice · 2024年05月23日

随着经济活动和国内通货膨胀的下降，发展中国家的货币将倾向于对美元升值

  1. CFA I
  2. Economics Analysis

NO.PZ2023071902000030

问题如下：

QuestionA developing country, which maintains a fixed exchange rate with the US dollar, is experiencing an economic slowdown, and its inflation rate falls below the inflation level in the United States. The most likely consequence of the developing country's efforts to maintain the fixed exchange rate target is that its:

选项：

A.foreign exchange reserves will fall B.short-term interest rates will fall. C.money supply will fall

解释：

Solution

  1. Incorrect. With a decline in economic activity and domestic inflation, the developing country's currency would tend to appreciate against the dollar. To uphold the fixed exchange rate target, the country's monetary authority would need to buy foreign exchange reserves and sell its own currency. This action will increase the domestic money supply, decrease short-term interest rates, and boost foreign exchange reserves.
  2. Correct. With a decline in economic activity and domestic inflation, the developing country's currency would tend to appreciate against the dollar. To maintain the fixed exchange rate target, the country's monetary authority would need to buy foreign exchange reserves and sell its own currency. As a result, the domestic money supply will increase, leading to a decrease in short-term interest rates, and foreign exchange reserves will rise.
  3. Incorrect. With a decline in economic activity and domestic inflation, the developing country's currency would tend to appreciate against the dollar. To preserve the fixed exchange rate target, the country's monetary authority would need to buy foreign exchange reserves and sell its own currency. This action will increase the domestic money supply, decrease short-term interest rates, and boost foreign exchange reserves.

Monetary Policy

• describe qualities of effective central banks; contrast their use of inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate targeting in expansionary or contractionary monetary policy; and describe the limitations of monetary policy

B正确。随着经济活动和国内通货膨胀的下降，发展中国家的货币将倾向于对美元升值。为了维持固定的汇率目标，该国的货币当局将需要买入外汇储备，卖出本币。因此，国内货币供应量将增加，导致短期利率下降，外汇储备将增加。

为什么发展中货币会升值？

而且国内经济变差，利率如果低的话，低于美国，不是会加速外资流走。我怎么理解为要加息，减少货币供给。

有点乱套了

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笛子_品职助教 · 2024年05月24日

嗨，爱思考的PZer你好：


为什么发展中货币会升值？

而且国内经济变差，利率如果低的话，低于美国，不是会加速外资流走。我怎么理解为要加息，减少货币供给。

有点乱套了


Hello，亲爱的同学~

在汇率这里，我们需要根据CFA里的知识点来判断汇率的升值还是贬值。

CFA里关于用利率判断汇率升跌的依据是：利率平价。即利率低的货币，会升值。


在以上知识点的基础上，我们看本题。

本题说，经济活动降低，国内通胀下降。

我们知道利率和经济是同向变动的。

则经济活动降低，也会使利率降低。

如果利率下降，根据利率平价，升值。

此外通胀在下降，通胀下降，意味着这个国家的钱，更加值钱了。

如果本国通胀下降，其他国家通胀不变，也会带来汇率的升值。


同学这里是提出了一个自己的分析角度。

同学提出的这个分析角度，在现实中也存在。这个理解也是正确的，允许的。

但就考试而言，我们还是要结合教材里有的知识点来解决这道题。

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