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西红柿面 · 2024年05月18日

对P/E的负面影响难道不是会变大吗?

NO.PZ2023040501000165

问题如下:

French estimates a terminal value using a valuation multiple based on the company’s average price-to earnings multiple (P/E) over the past five years. French asked:

“What change in the calculation of the terminal value would you make if a technological development that would adversely affect Archway was forecast to occur sometime beyond your financial forecast horizon?”

The most appropriate response to the question about the technological development is to:

选项:

A.

increase the required return.

B.

decrease the price-to-earnings multiple.

C.

decrease the perpetual growth rate.

解释:

If the future growth or profitability of a company is likely to be lower than the historical average (in this case, because of a potential technological development), then the target multiple should reflect a discount to the historical multiple to reflect this difference in growth and/or profitability. If a multiple issued to derive the terminal value of a company, the choice of the multiple should be consistent with the long-run expectations for growth and required return. French tells Wright he believes that such a technological development may have an adverse impact on Archway beyond the forecast horizon.

P/E增加,公司估值越小,投资价值越高,因为Earning很高。这里产生了负面影响,所以说应该是P/E增加呀

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王园圆_品职助教 · 2024年05月18日

同学你好,“technological development that would adversely affect Archway ”是指科技进步会对公司有不利影响

也就是可能新的技术会使公司现有产品的优势不再继续从而使公司的利润降低,或者增速放缓,那都会使公司的earnings变小,value降低才对啊

市场一般给高增长的公司更高的P/E,而给价值型的不再成长的公司的P/E更低

根据上面粉色的分析,可以知道对该公司估值的时候,既然未来可能公司的成长潜力没有那么大了,就应该给更低的P/E来进行终值的估计才对


助教没看懂你“P/E增加,公司估值越小”的逻辑——同样的earings,如果使用的P/E越大,最后计算的value = P/E * E是越大才对哦

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