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KKII · 2024年05月08日

有个疑惑,这道题本意是将payout ratio用三年时间提高到25%

NO.PZ2023040402000014

问题如下:

The dividend policy of Berkshire Gardens Inc. can be represented by a gradual adjustment to a target dividend payout ratio. Last year Berkshire had earnings per share of $3.00 and paid a dividend of $0.60 a share. This year it estimates earnings per share will be $4.00. Find its dividend per share for this year if it has a 25 percent target payout ratio and uses a five-year period to adjust its dividend.

选项:

A.

$0.68.

B.

$0.80.

C.

$0.85.

解释:

The estimated dividend per share is $0.68.

Previous DPS = $0.60

Expected increase in EPS = $4 – $3 = $1

Target payout ratio = 0.25

Five-year adjustment factor = 1/5 = 0.2

Expected dividend = Previous dividend + (Expected earnings×Target payout ratio–Previous dividend)×Adjustment factor

= $0.60 + [($4.00×0.25–$0.60)×0.2] = $0.60 + $0.08 = $0.68


这道题本意是将payout ratio用三年时间提高到从20%(0.6/3=20%)提高25%,但是如果真的按照答案说的0.68,那payout ratio岂不是才0.68/4=17%,也就是说从20%降至17%了,违背初衷了(本意是提高payout ratio,现在反而降了)




1 个答案

王琛_品职助教 · 2024年05月09日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


1

初衷确实是希望用五年的时间(不是三年的时间哈),将分红比率,提高到 25%

但是这并不代表,分红比率一定就是逐年上升的

2

这道题,之所以分红比率相比去年不增反降

其中一个原因,是 earnings 增长过快

EPS,从 3 增长到 4,增长了 33%

如果保持 20% 及以上的分红比率,分红至少是 0.8 及以上

这种增速不一定是可持续的,公司下一年可能不一定还能保持这个分红水平

3

所以 stable dividend policy 的本质

是分红不随净利润上下波动而波动

不管净利润变化有多剧烈,分红都是稳中有升的

stable 的关注点在分红哈,并不是分红比率

4

也可以参考原版书 P27 的例子

图中虚线的 DPS 是稳中有升

而灰色实线分红比率并不是逐渐上升的

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

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