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Cooljas · 2024年05月05日

为啥 left tail变大,误差变小啊?

NO.PZ2023091601000094

问题如下:

A risk manager has been requested to provide some indication of accuracy of a Monte Carlo simulation. Using 1,000 replications of a normally distributed variable S, the relative error in the one-day 99% VaR is 5%. Under these conditions:

选项:

A.

Using 1,000 replications of a long option position on S should create a larger relative error.

B.

Using 10,000 replications should create a larger relative error.

C.

Using another set of 1,000 replications will create an exact measure of 5.0% for relative error.

D.

Using 1,000 replications of a short option position on S should create a larger relative error.

解释:

Short option positions have long left tails, which makes it more difficult to estimate a left-tailed quantile precisely. Accuracy with independent draws increases with the square root of K. Thus increasing the number of replications should shrink the standard error, so answer B is incorrect.

为啥 left tail变大,误差变小啊?

1 个答案

李坏_品职助教 · 2024年05月07日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


B选项说的是使用10000次模拟会产生更大的误差,这个错误。10000次模拟远远大于题干说的1000次模拟,次数变多了,那误差变小才对。所以B选项错误。


做空期权的潜在亏损是无限的,所以short option 的左尾极端损失会很大,这样会增加左尾分位数计算的精准度,误差变大。所以D正确。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!