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Shiky · 2024年05月04日

prudence bias

NO.PZ2022122601000001

问题如下:

Neshie Wakuluk is an investment strategist who develops capital market expectations for an investment firm that invests across asset classes and global markets. Wakuluk started her career when the global markets were experiencing significant volatility and poor returns; as a result, she is now careful to base her conclusions on objective evidence and analytical procedures to mitigate any potential biases.

Wakuluk most likely seeks to mitigate which of the following biases in developing capital market forecasts?

选项:

A.Availability B.Time period C.

Survivorship

解释:

A is correct. Wakuluk started her career when the global markets were experiencing significant volatility and poor returns. She is careful to base her conclusions on objective evidence and analytical procedures to mitigate potential biases, which suggests she is seeking to mitigate an availability bias. Availability bias is the tendency to be overly influenced by events that have left a strong impression and/or for which it is easy to recall an example

老师,这个题目是否也存在prudence bias呢?


1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2024年05月06日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


Prudence bias是谨慎偏差:

其含义是为使预测不显得极端而调整预测的倾向,或在预测时过于谨慎的倾向。可以理解为,预测者不愿意只有自己出错,所以比较随大流,不做极端的事情。

但是本题强调的是主人翁刚入职的时候遭遇过不好的大环境,现在他的投资受到此前这个经历的影响,这种还是优先Availability ,因为题目没有说这人为了随大流,或是想却阻止的极端预测的倾向。

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