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Carolyne · 2024年05月01日

乘以g

NO.PZ2023032701000120

问题如下:

Nano Beta, an Italian biotech firm, develops nanoparticles to enhance cancer treatments and counter drug resistance. They await preliminary EMA approval in a year and final approval in two years. A VC analyst is evaluating its value using a decision tree based on EMA approval predictions


If the company's product isn't approved, its value is zero. Using a 15% WACC and constant growth in a discounted cash flow model, the analyst considers two scenarios.

Broad applicability: Nano Beta is able to apply this new therapy to several pervasive forms of cancer. Annual FCFF is expected to be EUR 200 million with perpetual constant growth (g) of 5%.

Limited applicability: Due to the therapy’s limited efficacy, Nano Beta is only able to apply its therapy on a limited basis to a few rare cancer types. Annual FCFF is expected to be EUR 50 million with 2% constant growth.

Assuming that FCFF grows at a constant rate in perpetuity under each scenario

The firm value today (t=0) is closest to:

选项:

A.

EUR 392 million

B.

EUR 798 million

C.

EUR 603 million

解释:


怎么看出来200和50又要分别乘以g?已知说expected to be 200 就以为是站在t=2时间点 往后expect 那么理应不乘以g 这块考试时如何快速识别

1 个答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2024年05月01日

同学你好,注意题目这个图,题目这里说了是在t=2也就是第二年年末的时候,会有final approval和limited approval这两种情形并给出了此时该情形的可能性。所以我们必须匹配公司在第二年年末的价值和对应时间的可能性

200*(1+g)相当于计算的是第三年年末的FCFF,用第三年年末的FCFF做分母来计算的terminal value = FCFF3/(r-g)才会正好落在第2年年末,才能乘以第二年年末的可能性

如果用落在第2年年末的FCFF2计算terminal value=FCFF2/(r-g),那就会落在第1年年末,问题是第一年年末题目没有给final approval和limited approval的可能性,这题就没有办法算了

所以这类题目必须看清楚时间点,计算对应时间的terminal value才能做对

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