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dilly24 · 2024年04月29日

Credit cycle and default

NO.PZ2021120102000026

问题如下:

Which of the following phases of the credit cycle typically involves a decline in the number of issuer defaults?

选项:

A.

Late expansion phase

B.

Early expansion phase

C.

Peak phase

解释:

A is correct. The late expansion phase is typically associated with accelerating growth, peak profits, stable leverage, and a decline in defaults.

请问C为什么不对?Peak phase为什么不是decline in issuer default啊?

1 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2024年05月03日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


Peak阶段的Default是stable的,并非是下降的。


Peak可以理解成是经济最佳时的一个顶峰点,这一点时经济不可能更好,企业的经营也不可能更高,所以Corporate default企业的违约不可能进一步下降了,此时违约default达到Stable状态(达到最低default状态)。


而在Late expansion阶段,经济还未上升至Peak,经济还有上升的余地,企业经营还有上升的余地,所以Default还要下降的余地,于是在Late expansion极端,Default是falling的


在Earling expansion阶段,经济刚复苏,公司的违约Default达到最大(peak),但有下降的趋势存在

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