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Carolyne · 2024年04月26日

题目全吗

NO.PZ2023040601000070

问题如下:

Carlisle observes that the spread between the three-year default-free nominal bond and the default-free real zero-coupon bond in Country #3 is 2.0%.

The recent change in Country #3’s breakeven inflation rate suggests that the expected rate of inflation over the next three years is:

选项:

A.

less than 2.0%.

B.

equal to 2.0%.

C.

greater than 2.0%.

解释:

The difference, or spread, between the yields on the country’s three-year default-free nominal and on the default-free real zero-coupon bonds is 2.0%. This spread is known as the breakeven rate of inflation (BEI), which is composed of the expected rate of inflation plus a risk premium for the uncertainty of future inflation. Because this risk premium component is most likely positive, because investors are unlikely to be very confident in their ability to predict inflation accurately, the expected rate of inflation component would be less than 2.0%.

这道题题目已知全吗?为什么对未来预测不自信?

3 个答案

品职助教_七七 · 2024年05月03日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


2%是observe到的结果,是事实数据,不会改变。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

品职助教_七七 · 2024年04月30日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


请具体给出“还可以大于2”的原因和逻辑。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

Carolyne · 2024年05月02日

如果我认为未来break even inflation rate变得更大了 那不就是大于2%吗?

品职助教_七七 · 2024年04月27日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


题目全。任何投资者都无法确认自己预测的未来inflation是对的。

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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!

Carolyne · 2024年04月27日

那为什么一定小于2呢 还可以大于2啊

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