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dilly24 · 2024年04月26日

Bull/bear steepening/flattening

NO.PZ2021120102000009

问题如下:

An active investor enters a duration-neutral yield curve flattening trade that combines 2-year and 10-year Treasury positions. Under which of the following yield curve scenarios would you expect the investor to realize the greatest portfolio gain?

选项:

A.

Bear steepening

B.

bull flattening

C.

Yield curve inversion

解释:

C is correct.

A duration-neutral flattening trade involves a short 2-year Bond position and a long 10-year bond position, which have a matched duration or portfolio duration of zero. This portfolio will realize a gain if the slope of the yield curvethat is, the difference between short-term and long-term yieldsdeclines. Yield curve inversion is an extreme version of flattening in which the spread between long-term and short-term yields-to-maturity falls below zero.

The bear steepening in A involves an unchanged 2-year yield-to-maturity with a rise in the 10-year yield-to-maturity, causing a portfolio loss. The bull flattening in B combines a constant 2-year yield-to-maturity with lower 10-year rates, resulting in a gain on the 10-year bond position and an unchanged 2-year bond position.

可以解释一下这道题吗?没有看懂

2 个答案

pzqa31 · 2024年04月26日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


其实就是这个投资者预测未来收益率曲线flatten,所以采取了一个在flatten下能盈利的策略,也就是题干说的 yield curve flattening trade ,可以判断2年期是short头寸,10年期是Long头寸。然后市场的实际情况可能会出现ABC三种情况,问的就是在这三种情况下哪个能获利最多。

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pzqa31 · 2024年04月26日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


收益率曲线flatten下获得最大收益,然后让选出合适的flatten情形。


1.我们先分析duration neutral


要想duration neutral,2年期债与10年期债肯定是相反头寸,即一个是Long,一个是short。

如果想在收益率曲线flatten下有利可图,可以判断2年期是short头寸,10年期是Long头寸(假设收益率曲线下降,2年期利率下降的少,10年期利率下降的多,也就是bull flatten,显然,只有long 10年期,short 2年期,才会在duration neutral的条件下有收益,若long 1年期,short 10年期,是有亏损的)。


2.明确头寸后,我们分析选项

选项A:bear steepen,长短期都上涨,长期上涨的多,短期上涨的少,可以看成长期不变,短期上下降,long 2年期,short 10年期可以获利、

 

选项B:bull flatten,长短期都下降,长期下降的多,短期下降的少,可以看成短期不变,长期下降,short 2年期,long 10年期也可以获利,这个获利主要由long 10年期驱动。

 

选项C:yield curve inversion,收益率曲线变inverted,即,短期利率大于长期利率,收益率曲线向下倾斜,这说明短期利率上涨很多,长期利率下降很多,二者变化方向相反,short 2年期与Long 10年期都可以获利,所以如果收益率曲线发生这种变动,short 2Y,long 10Y的收益是最大的。

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