不能理解题目，以及答案

问题如下：

John and Lucy are classmates majoring in finance, and John is very interested in learning about Monte Carlo models. Lucy provided an example from Exhibit 1. She explained that the model results are based on a hypothetical client with a conservative risk profile, who has established multiple goals over a 20-year time horizon. The client has set confidence levels of 96%, 86%, and 76% to achieve their goals at 10, 15, and 20 years, respectively.

Exhibit 1:

Based on Lucy's explanation of the Monte Carlo model and the information in Exhibit 1, the hypothetical client will most likely:

选项：

A.

achieve his or her goals.

B.

need to increase the amount of contributions to achieve the goal.

C.

need to adopt investment strategies with higher expected returns.

解释：

B is correct. At 20 years, 68% of the trials were successful, which is lower than the customer's required confidence level of 76%. Therefore, the client has an unacceptable risk of not being able to achieve the 20-year goal. In order to increase the percentage of successful trials to reach or exceed the confidence level, the client would need to increase the amount of the contribution to achieve the goal.

A is incorrect. At 10 years, the number of successful trials was 97%, and at 15 years, the number of successful trials was 88%, both above the confidence levels of 96% and 86%, respectively. However, at 20 years, the number of successful trials is 68%, below the confidence level of 76%. Therefore, although customers have acceptable risks in achieving the 10- and 15-year goals, there is also unacceptable risks in not achieving the 20-year goal.

C is incorrect. For clients with conservative risk profiles, adopting investment strategies with higher expected returns and associated higher expected risks is not a feasible solution.

知识点考察：Interpreting Monte Carlo Simulation Results

B是正确的。在20年时，69%的试验是成功的，这低于客户要求的75%的置信水平。因此，客户有无法实现20年目标的不可接受的风险。为了提高成功试验的百分比以达到或超过置信水平，客户需要增加对目标的贡献。

A不正确。10年时，成功试验的数量为98%，15年时，试验的成功数量为87%，分别高于95%和85%的置信水平。然而，在20年后，成功的试验数量为69%，低于75%的置信水平。因此，尽管客户在实现10年和15年目标方面有可接受的风险，但在未实现20年目标方面也有不可接受的危险。

C不正确。对于风险状况保守的客户来说，采用具有更高预期回报和随之而来的更高预期风险的投资策略不是一个切实可行的解决方案。