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Kate · 2024年04月21日

这道题为什么选C不选A

NO.PZ2021120102000033

问题如下:

An active fixed-income manager is evaluating the relative performance of an investment-grade corporate versus a high-yield corporate debt allocation in a fixed-income portfolio.

Which of the following analytical model assumption changes is most likely to reduce the future value of the high-yield portfolio relative to the investment-grade holdings?

选项:

A.

Steepening of the benchmark yield volatility curve.

B.

Decreased likelihood of an economic slowdown.

C.

Increased likelihood of a flight to quality associated with bullish benchmark yield curve flattening (long-term rates fall by more than short-term rates do).

解释:

C is correct. Under a “flight to quality” scenario, macroeconomic factors driving government bond YTMs lower cause high-yield bond credit spreads to rise because of an increased likelihood of and expected higher severity of financial distress.

This relationship is captured in the difference between empirical and analytical duration measures.

题目中问的是high yield bond和investment grade bond的比较。注意他并没有需要区分长短期,所以我做题的时候看到C选项说bullish直接就默认经济发展更好的,不理解什么需要具体看bullish flatten 长短期的差别。


另外,我觉得A是对的呀?

Volatility 增加表示整体risk增加,在这样的市场条件下投资者会更喜欢investment grade 来应对危机,也就是reduce attractiveness of high yield bond.


不是太理解我的这些思维问题出现在哪里,谢谢。

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pzqa31 · 2024年04月23日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


经济好坏,最先影响的是短期的波动率,或者说短期波动对经济更敏感,会导致短期的风险发生变化,所以,如果波动率曲线变陡,一定是短期波动率下降;波动率曲线变平,一定是短期期波动率上升。


收益率曲线其实也是短期更明显,经济好坏对短期利率的影响更加明显,或者说短期利率受经济影响更大,长期比短期还是相对稳定,这个地方可以这样理解,当经济下行的时候,央行通常会采取一些降准降息的方式刺激经济,创造一个低利率环境,最极端的例子就是日本采取的负利率。

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pzqa31 · 2024年04月22日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


steepen of benchmark yield volatility curve收益率波动率曲线变陡峭,它代表短期风险在变小,也就是经济正在变好,所以HYB比IG更好。如果是steepen of benchmark yield curve,代表收益率曲线变陡峭,即短期利率相对于长期在下降,此时是经济陷入衰退,那么IG比HYB更好。

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

Kate · 2024年04月22日

steepen of benchmark yield volatility curve收益率波动率曲线变陡峭,它代表短期风险在变小,也就是经济正在变好,所以HYB比IG更好。 问题:volatility curve steepen可以推出短期风险变小和长期风险变大,在长期风险变大,是危机的表现,所以我得到了IG比HYB更好的结论。请问为什么只考虑短期? 如果是steepen of benchmark yield curve,代表收益率曲线变陡峭,即短期利率相对于长期在下降,此时是经济陷入衰退,那么IG比HYB更好。 问题:短期利率下降则HYB更好;长期利率上升则IG更好。这里只考虑长期吗?

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