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西红柿面 · 2024年04月18日

之前的问题没有追问按钮,所以就重新提问一下

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NO.PZ202108100100000104

问题如下:

The most appropriate response to Troubadour’s supervisor’s question regarding the TSI forward contract is:

选项:

A.

a decrease in TSI’s share price, all else equal.

B.

an increase in the risk-free rate, all else equal

C.

a decrease in the market price of the forward contract, all else equal.

解释:

B is correct.

From the perspective of the long position, the forward value is equal to the present value of the difference in forward prices:

Vt = PV[Ft – F0]

where

Ft = FV(St +CCt –CBt )

All else equal, an increase in the risk-free rate before contract expiration would cause the forward price, Ft , to increase. This increase in the forward price would cause the value of the TSI forward contract, from the perspective of the short, to decrease. Therefore, an increase in the risk-free rate would lead to a loss on the short position in the TSI forward contract

中文解析:

首先需要明确现在是远期合约的short头寸,问的是下列那种情况会产生损失。

A选项:short 远期合约,希望将来标的资产下跌。因此当标的价格下降,其他条件不变的情况下,short头寸会有gain,而不是loss;

B选项:根据公式F= S0(1 + Rf) T可知,当Rf增加,forward合约价格上升,对于short forward一方来说会产生损失;选B

C选项:作为short forward的一方,当forward价格下跌时,会有gain,而不是loss,C不能选。

之前助教回答:https://class.pzacademy.com/qa/157960


有几个问题没有懂:

(1)就是我平常时可以能理解,但是一旦结合了这个图之后就理解不了,我们是Short Position所以用右边的图,计算Value的时候当FP下降,Short Forward的Value是减小的,那为啥就是赚钱了呀?

(2)拿卖水的例子来看,我约定了一个价格卖水,水价下跌我赚钱,这个可以理解;但是Forward Price这里就没有理解,假如FP下降,为什么就是赚的呢?


1 个答案
已采纳答案

李坏_品职助教 · 2024年04月18日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


比如期初我做空了原油远期合约(合约1),期初的FP=100元/桶。

过了一个月之后,FP下跌到50元/桶。意味着我现在可以立刻签订一个50元/桶的原油远期多头(合约2)。

等到了两个合约到期日的时候,我先用50块钱从合约2的空头手里买入一桶原油,再把这桶原油交割给合约1的多头,而多头付给我100块钱。这个差价就是我的利润。


回到你的第一个问题,右图里面的FP是期初确定下来的FP,是交割价格,对于当前这份合约不会再变化。类似于上面这个例子里面的合约1的100元,对于合约1来说,交割价格永远都是100元/桶。

所谓的FP下降,指的是在未来某个时刻,如果再签一个新的远期合约,那么新的远期合约的FP小于老的远期合约的FP,至于如何赚钱,参考我上面的例子。


老师画的右边那个图可以用来分析St的变化对于空头的影响。



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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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