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比夏 · 2024年04月18日

怎么判断题目中的correlation指的是什么之间的correlation?

NO.PZ2020033001000033

问题如下:

In May of 2005, General Motors and Ford was downgraded to junk status, the following situation led to huge losses for multiple hedge funds. Which of the following positions are most likely to be held by these funds and ultimately lead to their losses?

选项:

A.

Long the equity tranche of the CDO and short the mezzanine tranche of the CDO, when the correlations of the assets in the CDO decreased.

B.

Long the equity tranche of the CDO and short the mezzanine tranche of the CDO, when the correlations of the assets in the CDO increased.

C.

Short the equity tranche of the CDO and long the mezzanine tranche of the CDO, when the correlations of the assets in the CDO decreased.

D.

Short the equity tranche of the CDO and long the mezzanine tranche of the CDO, when the correlations of the assets in the CDO increased.

解释:

A is correct.

考点:2005年的correlation-related crisis

解析:降级为垃圾级通常会导致债券价格急剧下跌,因为许多共同基金和养老基金不允许持有垃圾债券,CDO中引用投资级债券的债券的相关性下降,因为不同信用质量的债券的相关性通常较低,相关性下降导致对冲基金蒙受巨大损失,因为他们的策略是long equity的CDO的同时short mezzanine的CDO,相关性下降时这策略两端都受损。

when the correlations of the assets in the CDO decreased

——我的理解是,在经济下行时,不同资产类别(例如equity和mezzanine)之间的相关性会减弱,但同一个资产类别内不同债券的相关性会增加,但是我怎么判断题目说的correlation指的是哪种场景呢?

2 个答案

李坏_品职助教 · 2024年04月18日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


这个其实就是该tranche的收益率,也可以理解为分母的折现率。


hedge fund一开始做多equity tranche,那么hedge fund在该tranche获得的收益就确定下来了。后面correlation降低时,equity tranche的市场收益率(equity tranche's market spread)在上升,相当于hedge fund吃亏了。在估值的时候,market spread也会作为分母的折现率的一部分,分母变大,那么equity tranche的估值是降低的,所以会有账面亏损。

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李坏_品职助教 · 2024年04月18日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


这个题目是引用自原版书的写法(和讲义里也是一致的),原版书关于correlation in CDO这一段叙述如下

这里的Correlation说的是CDO底层的bond之间的相关性。本来这些bond都是投资级,现在有一部分降级为垃圾债,所以这些bond相关性下降了。

当上图的bonds之间的相关性下降时:

  1. 箭头1代表的equity tranche的spread变大,从而使得hedge fund原本做多equity而收取的spread小于现在的equity spread;
  2. 箭头2代表的mezzanine tranche的spread下降,从而使得hedge fund之前因为做空mezzanine而支付的spread比现在的mezzanine spread高,所以也是亏损。

从而导致对冲基金的策略遭受巨大亏损。


这个题目的选项写的是 the correlations of the assets in the CDO,这个是按照原版书的写法,也就指的CDO底层的bond的相关性了。


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比夏 · 2024年04月18日

请问原版书上的这张图的各条曲线,比如所谓的equity tranche的spread该怎么理解?

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