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Carolyne · 2024年04月11日

哪里切一刀

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NO.PZ202301100200000204

问题如下:

Based on Exhibit 2, Annear will most likely conclude that the NECP shares are:

选项:

A.overvalued according to the two-step DDM and overvalued using AFFO.

B.overvalued according to the two-step DDM but undervalued using AFFO.

C.undervalued according to the two-step DDM but overvalued using AFFO.

解释:

Solution

C is correct. The first step of the DDM uses the estimates for NECP’s dividend in years 1, 2, and 3. In the second step, a long-run dividend growth rate of 3% is assumed. In addition, it is assumed NECP maintains an 80% dividend payout ratio. If NECP’s historical beta is 0.9, the risk-free rate is 3% and the assumed equity risk premium is 4%, the cost of equity capital is 6.6%

Risk free rate +(Beta×Risk premium)=6.6%

The value of the stock at the end of year 3 is 76.25 or

2.7452.745/(6.6% - 3%)

The present values of the cash flows discounted at the cost of capital is:

78.91(1+.036)3 +2.58(1+.036)2 +2.541+.036=69.79

The present value of cash flows according to the two-step DDM is 69.79, compared to which the share price of 62.81 is undervalued. AFFO/share is 3.13 and with a peer multiple of 19, the price is 59.47 compared to which the share price of 62.81 is overvalued.

A is incorrect. NECP is not overvalued when using the two-step DDM.

B is incorrect. NECP is neither overvalued according to the two-step DDM nor undervalued when using AFFO.

请问哪里说第四年开始就第二阶段了。另外 从上往下第二个 growth是什么意思?红利增长率吗 数字乘一下也对不上呀

2 个答案

pzqa35 · 2024年04月11日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


第四年下面是没有增长率的,所以推理应该是第三年*(1+3%)=第四年的股利,所以也就是从第4年开始进入到永续增长,这道题目本身协会出的就不是很严谨哈,所以我们只能基于推理去看。

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pzqa35 · 2024年04月11日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


这个题目是协会的practice题目,我们的条件跟协会给出来的是一致的哈。

其中dividend这一行,第一年是2.54,第二年是2.58,第三年是2.67,第四年开始永续增长为3%。这道题目协会给的确实是不够严谨的,这个growth应该是第一年股利*(1+growth rate)=第二年的股利,这个数字确实是不对的哈。同时第四年这里应该是第三年*(1+3%)才能够体现永续增长是从第4年开始的。

这道题目本身确实不够严谨,同学重点掌握一下解题思路即可,如果后续协会有勘误的话,我们也会及时更新相关内容的哈。

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

Carolyne · 2024年04月11日

为什么是第四年开始是永续增长 而不是第五年开始永续增长呢?