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宇宙球求 · 2024年04月06日

终身年金和蒙特卡洛的区别是?

NO.PZ2021090805000018

问题如下:

Tom and his wife discussed retirement income goals and amounts with their investment advisor Johnson. They hope to maintain their current living standards after retirement and emphasize the importance of having confidence in achieving income goals for the rest of their lives.

According to Tom Tong's description of his retirement income goal, which of the following is the best method to analyze this goal?

选项:

A.

Annuity pricing

B.

Mortality tables

C.

Monte Carlo simulation

解释:

A is correct. Tom emphasized the importance of achieving the lifetime income goal of maintaining an inflation-adjusted current standard of living throughout retirement. Analyzing the pricing of joint lifetime annuity to ensure this goal is the best way to achieve it. A joint life annuity provide a series of guaranteed fixed payments, which can be exchanged for a one-time payment as long as any of them are still alive.

B is not correct. The mortality table shows a person's life expectancy at any specific age. One potential issue with using mortality tables as the only method to analyze Benetton's retirement goals is the probability that one or both of them will exceed the life expectancy of the general population. Therefore, they run the risk of outliving their assets and may need to reduce their annual income (spending) goal at some point.

C is incorrect. Monte Carlo simulation analyzed the likelihood of a client's actual investment portfolio meeting their anticipated retirement needs. Although Monte Carlo's output will include the probability of achieving Tom's goals, it cannot guarantee that their goals will be achieved, nor would it necessarily measure the “shortfall magnitude” to achieving their goal. Therefore, they run the risk of outliving their assets and may need to reduce their annual income (spending) goal at some point.

A是正确的。Tom强调了实现终身收入目标的重要性,即在整个退休期间保持经通胀调整的当前生活水平。通过对联合终身年金进行定价来分析这一目标是确保实现这一目标的最佳方法。联合终身年金提供了一系列有保证的固定支付,只要他们中的任何一个还活着,就可以换取一次性付款。

B不正确。死亡率表显示了一个人在任何特定年龄的预期寿命。将使用死亡率表作为分析贝纳通退休目标的唯一方法会有一个潜在问题,他们中的一个或两个的年龄超过普通人群预期寿命的概率。因此,他们面临着超过资产寿命的风险,可能需要在某个时候降低年收入(支出)目标。

C不正确。蒙特卡洛模拟分析了客户实际投资组合满足预期退休需求的可能性。尽管蒙特卡洛的产出将包括实现Tom目标的概率,但它不能保证他们的目标得到实现,也不一定能衡量实现目标的“缺口大小”。因此,他们面临着超过资产寿命的风险,可能需要在某个时候降低年收入(支出)目标。

如题

1 个答案
已采纳答案

王暄_品职助教 · 2024年04月07日

根据Tom Tong对退休收入目标的描述,最适合分析这个目标的方法是:


A. 年金定价

选项A是正确的。Tom强调了实现终身收入目标的重要性,即在整个退休期间保持经通胀调整后的当前生活水平。分析联合终身年金的定价是确保实现这一目标的最佳方式。联合终身年金提供一系列有保证的固定付款,只要他们中的任何一个人还活着,就可以一次性付款换取。


B选项是不正确的。死亡率表显示了任何特定年龄的人的预期寿命。使用死亡率表作为分析Benetton退休目标的唯一方法可能存在的问题是,他们中的一个或两个都超过了普通人群的预期寿命的概率。因此,他们冒着耗尽资产的风险,并可能需要在某个时候降低他们的年度收入(支出)目标。


C选项是不正确的。蒙特卡洛模拟分析了客户实际投资组合满足其预期退休需求的可能性。尽管蒙特卡洛的输出将包括实现Tom目标的概率,但它不能保证他们的目标一定会实现,也不一定衡量实现其目标的“短缺程度”。因此,他们同样面临着资产耗尽的风险,并可能需要在某个时候降低他们的年度收入(支出)目标。


综上所述,通过分析年金定价是确保Tom Tong实现其退休收入目标的最佳方法,因为它提供了一种保证的固定付款系列,可以确保他们在整个退休期间保持当前的生活水平。其他选项,如使用死亡率表或蒙特卡洛模拟,虽然可以提供一些有用的信息,但不能完全保证目标的实现,并可能需要对收入目标进行调整。

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