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游得过 · 2024年04月02日

B和C为啥不对呢

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NO.PZ201812310200000114

问题如下:

During the presentation about how the research team estimates the probability of default for a particular bond issuer, Lok is asked for his thoughts on the shape of the term structure of credit spreads. Which statement is he most likely to include in his response?

选项:

A.

The term structure of credit spreads typically is flat or slightly upward sloping for high quality investment-grade bonds. High-yield bonds are more sensitive to the credit cycle, however, and can have a more upwardly sloped term structure of credit spreads than investment-grade bonds or even an inverted curve.

B.

The term structure of credit spreads for corporate bonds is always upward sloping, the more so the weaker the credit quality because probabilities of default are positively correlated with the time to maturity.

C.

There is no consistent pattern to the term structure of credit spreads. The shape of the credit term structure depends entirely on industry factors.

解释:

A is correct.

B is incorrect because, although generally true for investment-grade bonds, the statement neglects the fact that high-yield issuers sometimes face a downward-sloping credit term structure. Credit term structures are not always upward sloping.

C is incorrect because there is a consistent pattern to the term structure of credit spreads— typically it is upwardly sloped because greater time to maturity is associated with higher projected probabilities of default and lower recovery rates.

B和C为啥不对呢

1 个答案
已采纳答案

吴昊_品职助教 · 2024年04月02日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


1、B选项说的Always upward sloping,这句话太过绝对,他认为Credit spread曲线总是向上倾斜的,这点错误。应该是大多数情况下是Upward sloping,也存在downward sloping的倾斜。B选项换成 is typically upward sloping,这样说就对了。

2、C选项中:Credit term structure完全由Industry factor决定,这点是错的。基础班讲义P244-245页,都在讲影响Credit term structure的因素。

比如:Credit quality is a key factor;Financial conditions ;Market supply and demand dynamics等等因素,都是影响Credit term strucutre的影响因素。所以C选项里面说的depends entirely on industry factors是错误的。


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