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西红柿面 · 2024年04月01日

还是不懂

  1. CFA II
  2. Equity

* 问题详情，请 查看题干

NO.PZ201512300100001207

问题如下：

7. Under Scenario 1, the intrinsic value per share of the equity of Amersheen is closest to:

选项：

A.

R13.29.

B.

R15.57.

C.

R16.31.

解释：

As the multistage residual income model results in an intrinsic value of R16.31.

This variation of the multistage residual income model, in which residual income fades over time, is:

where  is the persistence factor.

The first step is to calculate residual income per share for years 2012 2015:

ROE = earnings / book value

Growth rate = ROE × retention rate

Retention rate = 1  (dividends/earnings)

Book valuet= book valuet 1 + earningst 1  dividendst 1

Residual income per share = EPS  equity charge per share

Equity charge per share = book value per sharet× cost of equity

Using the residual income per share for 2015 of R1.608, the second step is to calculate the present value of the terminal value:

PV of Terminal Value =

R1.6081+0.10-0.70(1.10)3=R3.0203

Then, intrinsic value per share is:

V0=R7.60+R2.52(1.10)+R2.31(1.10)2+R1.98(1.10)3+R3.0203=R16.31

1. T不是应该代表进入到第二段时间的时间吗？这道题的T难道不应该是2015吗？跟2016又有什么关系呀？

2.我理解的是，下面黑色打印的这个公式T-1对应的就是2014年，用RI 2015计算对应2014年年底的PVRI然后折3年回去（也就是老师的红字部分），这个没问题。但是老师的解析我看写的“如果要使用李老师的公式，则需要向后推导一年，计算出RI2016以后才可以使用，并且折现的PVRI就会落在2015年年末，需要和2015年的RI=1.608一起折现4年到0时刻，就可以获得和本题一样的答案了”。这跟2016年有什么关系呢？如果2016年的话，不应该是RI(T+1）吗？既然是红色公式再向后一期推导出来的





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王园圆_品职助教 · 2024年04月01日

同学你好，先不看时间点，首先我们先明确一下，题目的英文解析，用的是老师的手写版公式，也就是RI/（1+w-r）这个公式计算的对不对？

而RI=1.608是2015年的RI对不对？所以用这个2015年的RI做分子计算的PVRI就落在2014年年末


然后再按照老师的公式，助教已经解释了，老师的公式是在原版书公式的后面一年，用RI2015年往后推一年得到的2016年的RI——也就是RI2016 = RI2015*W——那RI2016年做分子，计算的PVRI是不是落在2015年年末？是不是就要比原版书公式多折现一年才能得到PVRI的0时刻价值？

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NO.PZ201512300100001207问题如下7. Unr Scenario 1, the intrinsic value per share of the equity of Amersheen is closest to:A.R13.29.B.R15.57.C.R16.31.the multistage resiincome mol results in intrinsic value of R16.31.This variation of the multistage resiincome mol, in whiresiincome fas over time, is: where is the persistenfactor.The first step is to calculate resiincome per share for years 2012 2015:ROE = earnings / book valueGrowth rate = ROE × retention rateRetention rate = 1 (vin/earnings)Book valuet= book valuet 1 + earningst 1 vint 1Resiincome per share = EPS equity charge per shareEquity charge per share = book value per sharet× cost of equityUsing the resiincome per share for 2015 of R1.608, the seconstep is to calculate the present value of the terminvalue:PV of TerminValue =R1.6081+0.10-0.70(1.10)3=R3.0203Then, intrinsic value per share is:V0=R7.60+R2.52(1.10)+R2.31(1.10)2+R1.98(1.10)3+R3.0203=R16.311、基础班李老师讲过，衰减率w=1+g, g为负数，但是这里的g=9%，两者似乎冲突了。2、解题过程中也没有用到9%，这个长期增长率g是什么前提假设吗？还是一个干扰项？

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