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咖啡巧克力 · 2024年03月16日

有个疑问

NO.PZ2023100701000015

问题如下:

An analyst is forecasting operating costs for a company with relatively high fixed costs, sensitivity to economic conditions, and commodity inputs with volatile pricing. The company does not follow a hedging strategy for commodity purchases but tries to buy when prices are low. Which of the following is most appropriate to use in forecasting operating costs? The analyst uses:


选项:

A.

analyst discretion to forecast all operating costs

B.

management guidance to forecast all operating costs

C.

management guidance to forecast fixed operating costs and analyst discretion to forecast variable operating costs

解释:

C is correct. Management has an advantage in forecasting for objects that are subject to its actions (such as capital expenditures and inventories, which affect fixed costs). The analyst is likely to have an informational advantage when it comes to forecasting economic conditions and commodity prices, which affect revenues and variable costs.

原材料价格波动很大,即便分析师对价格波动的预测更加准确,但最决定是否购买还是取决于公司管理层。现实中,这类原材料购买的预测,真的会忽略管理层对未来经营的自主分析么?

1 个答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2024年03月16日

同学你好,你说的没有错,管理层才能最终决定买不买大宗商品。

但是,首先,CFA协会是要求三个选项中选最佳的一个,题目强调了“The company does not follow a hedging strategy for commodity purchases but tries to buy when prices are low. ”公司的采购策略是价格低的时候才买,而大宗商品的价格不是管理层能够影响或者决定的,所以哪怕有时候管理层不那么想买,但价格实在合适的时候,公司为了生产经营的持续,也还是会买——所以从这个角度说,variable cost的预测就是应该更多的看分析师的预测的

其次,题目也没有说就要彻底忽略管理层的指导意见,现实生活中也肯定还是会先有分析师对价格预测,然后参考管理层估计的大致采购时间点来对最终的cost来进行预测的

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