NO.PZ2020012005000040
问题如下:
Suppose that F1 and F2 are the futures prices on the same commodity with maturities t1 and t2 with t2 > t1. Storage costs are negligible. The risk-free rate is R for all maturities. Use an arbitrage argument to show that:
选项:
解释:
A trader can enter into a long futures contract with maturity t1 and a short futures contract with maturity t2. At time t1 F1 is borrowed and the asset is bought for F1. The loan is repaid at time t2 and the asset is sold for F2.
The cash flows are
Time , and
Time
This simple strategy is certain to lead to a profit at time t2 if:
Thus, the prices will adjust such that:
根据正常的物价上涨的逻辑来说,F2应该大于F1,所以存在套利机会,那就是在t1做空,借入期货,并卖掉得到资金,然后在t2卖掉期货,得到F2,然后支付F1(1+R)^(t2-t1)利息,得到F2-F1(1+R)^(t2-t1)的收益。
这个理解对吗?
但是答案中用现金流的方式不太理解,为什么time1现金流是这样。
另外结论Thus, the prices will adjust such that:这里的公式应该如何理解呢