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粗眉毛辣椒油 · 2024年03月06日

题目的意思

NO.PZ2020012005000020

问题如下:

If a stock index, interest rate, and dividend yield remain constant, derive a formula for the futures price at time t in terms of the futures price at time zero. Suppose that the risk-free rate is 5% per year and the dividend yield on an index is 3% per year. If the stock index stays constant, at what rate does the futures price grow? (All rates are expressed with annual compounding.)

选项:

解释:

The relationship between the futures price, Ft, at time t and the spot price is:

Ft=S(1+R1+Q)Tt=S(1+R1+Q)T(1+Q1+R)t=F0(1+Q1+R)tF_t=S(\frac{1+R}{1+Q})^{T-t}=S(\frac{1+R}{1+Q})^T(\frac{1+Q}{1+R})^t=F_0(\frac{1+Q}{1+R})^t

where S, R, and Q are the index level, risk-free rate, and dividend yield, respectively and T is the initial time to maturity. This shows that the futures price grows at:

(1 + Q)/( 1 + R)- 1

When R = 5% and Q = 3%, the growth rate of the futures price per year is

(1 + Q)/( 1 + R)- 1=1.03/1.05-1=-0.019

or -1.9%.

1.通过老师讲的定价公式能得出FP=S0(1+5%)^T/(1+3%)^T,请问这里的FP是指0时刻的FP吗?

2.不懂题目的意思,也不明白答案中的计算。请老师解释一下。谢谢。


1 个答案
已采纳答案

李坏_品职助教 · 2024年03月07日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


题目说的是,假设现在risk free rate和dividend yield都已知,当现货资产(stock index,也就是公式里的S)保持不变时,期货价格(future price,也就是FP)每年的变化率多少?


FP=S0*(1+5%)^T / (1+3%)^T,这个FP指的是0时刻计算出来的期限为T的FP。

而期限为T-t的期货价格是FPt = S0*(1+5%)^(T-t) / (1+3%)^(T-t) =S0*(1+5%)^T / (1+3%)^T * [(1+3%)^t / (1+5%)^t] 。

我们用(FPt - FP) / FP = (1+3%)^t / (1+5%)^t - 1,这个就是t年的增长率。题目问的是每年的增长率,所以t=1, 增长率= (1+3%)/ (1+5%) - 1.


可以参考下图的计算过程:







----------------------------------------------
虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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