NO.PZ201710100100000306
问题如下：
If Carlisle’s prediction about the economy of Country #3 is realized, the yield curve in Country #3 will most likely:
选项：
A.remain flat.
B.become upward sloping.
C.become downward sloping.
解释：
B is correct.
The yield curve in Country #3 is currently flat (Exhibit 1), and Carlisle predicts a recession. During a recession, short-term rates tend to be lower because central banks tend to lower their policy rate in these times. However, the impact of monetary policy on longer-term rates will not be as strong because the central bank will usually be expected to bring short-term rates back to normal as the recession recedes. Thus, the slope of the yield curve will likely become upward sloping during the recession.
考点：yield curve
解析：题干问的是 prediction is realized 的情况，Carlisle 预测的是recession，也就是说 recession 已经发生了
原收益率曲线是 flat，进入 recession，央行降息对短期收益率影响更大，因 此yield curve 向上倾斜
如果他预测成功，将来会进入衰退，那在衰退之前，曲线不应该是平的或者向下么
