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SHAO · 2024年02月23日

老师，不太理解呀，长期来看P/E的增长不是=0吗，为什么A不对呢

  1. CFA II
  2. Economics Analysis

NO.PZ2023041102000033

问题如下：

Based on the latest data, an analyst projects that 3.25% real growth in the future and 3.75% inflation. He also forecasts that over the long run, equity market will return 13.5% per year—11% annual appreciation and 2.5% dividend yield—forever. Assuming the macroeconomic forecasts are accurate, which conclusion can be obtained underlie the forecast of 11% equity market appreciation (over the long run)?

选项：

A.expansion in the P/E multiple is zero

B.the combined contribution from expansion in the P/E multiple and change in shares outstanding of GDP is 4%

C.there is not enough information to obtain the conclusion.

解释：

Using the Grinold-Kroner framework, equity market returns can be attributed to (1) dividend yield, (2) expansion/contraction of the price-to-earnings ratio, (3) nominal GDP growth, and (4) change in shares outstanding. The macroeconomic forecast indicates that nominal GDP will grow at 7% (3.25% real + 3.75% inflation). So, the analyst’s forecast of 11% equity market appreciation implies a 4% annual combined contribution from expansion in the P/E multiple and/or change in shares outstanding of GDP over the long run.

老师，长期来看股市增长等于GDP增长，P/E，E/GDP那些项的增长不是=0吗，为什么A不对呢

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笛子_品职助教 · 2024年02月23日

嗨，从没放弃的小努力你好：


老师，长期来看股市增长等于GDP增长，P/E，E/GDP那些项的增长不是=0吗，为什么A不对呢

Hello，亲爱的同学~

如果题目已给了已知条件，我们要根据题目的已知条件来解题。


我们看题目的已知条件：

He also forecasts that over the long run, equity market will return 13.5% per year—11% annual appreciation and 2.5% dividend yield—forever.

每年升值11%。

而名义GDP是：3.25% real growth in the future and 3.75% inflation.


注意以上是已知条件，我们解题的时候，不需要在这里去判断题目中，已知条件的对错。

股票升值11%，名义GDP7%，股票升值比GDP多出来4%。

说明就这道题的长期来看，P/E、change in shares outstanding、E/GDP这些项不等于0，而是4%。

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努力的时光都是限量版，加油！

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