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AgnesWu · 2024年02月21日

关于unit labor cost

NO.PZ2023061903000005

问题如下:

Q. Which one of the following trends in various economic indicators is most consistent with a recovery from a recession?

选项:

A.A declining inventory–sales ratio and stable industrial production index

B.A rising broad stock market index and unit labor costs turning from increasing to decreasing

C.A decrease in average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance and an increase in aggregate real personal income

解释:

C is correct. The improving leading indicator, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, and the improving coincident indicator, aggregate real personal income, are most consistent with an economic recovery. Even though a declining inventory-to-sales ratio, a lagging indicator, is consistent with an early recovery, the coincident indicator, the stable industrial production index, does not support that conclusion. Although a rising stock market index can signal economic expansion, the lagging indicator, the unit labor costs, has peaked, which is more consistent with a recession.

对这个指标lagging的理解,在哪个阶段有peak cost 最大?在经济复苏阶段,我理解会增加单位用工效率,而非马上招募员工,cost会有降低,所以想问问B选项后半句怎么判断是描述不对?

2 个答案
已采纳答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2024年02月22日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


如果是滞后指标,经济已经复苏了,可能还存在labor cost下降的趋势吗?只是下降速度放缓了?

有可能的,经济刚刚复苏的初期,滞后指标是可以下降的,因为滞后。

所以这里正确的说法是:由降转升。

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笛子_品职助教 · 2024年02月21日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


对这个指标lagging的理解,在哪个阶段有peak cost 最大?

Hello,亲爱的同学~

lagging指标是滞后于经济的。

因此,在经济顶部,lagging指标还是会继续向上走。

当经济已经见顶,回落一段时间后,Lagging指标才会见顶。

滞后指标的最大的阶段,是经济已经见顶回落的前中期。


在经济复苏阶段,我理解会增加单位用工效率,而非马上招募员工,cost会有降低,所以想问问B选项后半句怎么判断是描述不对?

本题的已知条件,是经济是从衰退中复苏。

也就是说,经济目前是从谷底,往上走的。

因此,滞后于经济的工资,是由降转升的。

B选项后半段的描述是:turning from increasing to decreasing(由升转降),这个说法错误。


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AgnesWu · 2024年02月21日

如果是滞后指标,经济已经复苏了,可能还存在labor cost下降的趋势吗?只是下降速度放缓了?

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