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Viola欧拉 · 2024年02月15日

不理解,这个知识点能重新讲一下吗

NO.PZ2023061903000009

问题如下:

Q. Current economic statistics indicating little change in services inflation, rising residential building permits, and increasing average duration of unemployment are best interpreted as:

选项:

A.conflicting evidence about the direction of the economy. B.evidence that a cyclical upturn is expected to occur in the future. C.evidence that a cyclical downturn is expected to occur in the future.

解释:

B is correct. Rising building permits—a leading indicator—indicate that an upturn is expected to occur or continue. Increasing average duration of unemployment—a lagging indicator—indicates that a downturn has occurred, whereas the lack of any change in services inflation—also a lagging indicator—is neither negative nor positive for the direction of the economy. Taken together, these statistics indicate that a cyclical upturn may be expected to occur.

老师这里rising residential building permits, and increasing average duration of unemployment 两个不都是lag的指标么?怎么就预示复苏了呢

Viola欧拉 · 2024年02月15日

lagging indicator(滞后的指标)是怎么理解的呢?lagging indicator是中性的不作为判断经济状况的指标吗?

1 个答案
已采纳答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2024年02月15日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


老师这里rising residential building permits, and increasing average duration of unemployment 两个不都是lag的指标么?怎么就预示复苏了呢


同学注意,residential building permits是领先指标,不是滞后指标。


经济跟随领先指标,领先指标已经上升了,预示着经济未来即将上升。


lagging indicator(滞后的指标)是怎么理解的呢?lagging indicator是中性的不作为判断经济状况的指标吗?

滞后指标不用来预测经济,因为经济已经上升一段时间后,滞后指标才会上升。

只有领先指标,才能预测未来的经济。

expected(预期) to occur in the future(未来),要看领先指标。





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