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Viola欧拉 · 2024年02月15日

老师这道题知识点可以讲一下吗 谢谢

  1. CFA I
  2. Economics Analysis

NO.PZ2023061903000008

问题如下：

Q. When the spread between 10-year US Treasury yields and the short-term federal funds rate narrows and at the same time the prime rate stays unchanged, this mix of indicators most likely forecasts future economic:

选项：

A.growth. B.decline. C.stability.

解释：

B is correct. The narrowing spread of this leading indicator foretells a drop in short-term rates and a fall in economic activity. The prime rate is a lagging indicator and typically moves after the economy turns.

short-term federal funds rate narrows

prime rate stays unchanged


分别意味着什么？相关知识点可否再讲一下，谢谢

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笛子_品职助教 · 2024年02月15日

嗨，努力学习的PZer你好：


涉及到经济的领先指标和滞后指标。


spread between 10-year US Treasury yields and the short-term federal funds rate，是指长短利率的利差。

这是经济的领先指标，利差收窄，则表示经济未来衰退。


prime rate 是优惠利率，是经济的滞后指标。


领先指标已经预测经济衰退，但滞后指标没反应。问此时未来经济怎么走？领先指标预期未来，未来经济是衰退。

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来，我们正在朝着它而去，加油！

張寶寶 · 2024年04月24日

为什么利差收窄，则表示经济未来衰退？

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