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简敏敏 · 2024年02月14日

使用老师课上的方法，先把第一阶段前三年的D1D2D3求现值，第二阶段求出D4后，D4的P折现为什么是三次方？不是四次方？

  1. CFA I
  2. Quantitative

NO.PZ2023052407000004

问题如下：

Suppose Mylandia announces that it expects significant cash flow growth over the next three years, and now plans to increase its recent CAD2.40 dividend by 10 percent in each of the next three years. Following the 10 percent growth period, Mylandia is expected to grow its annual dividend by a constant 3 percent indefinitely. Mylandia’s required return is 8 percent. Based upon these revised

expectations, The expected share price of Mylandia stock is:

选项：

A.

CAD49.98

B.

CAD55.84

C.

CAD59.71

解释：

C is correct. Following the first step, we observe the following expected dividends for Mylandia for the next three years:


The second step involves a lower 3 percent growth rate. At the end of year four, Mylandia’s dividend (D4) is expected to be CAD3.29 (=2.40×1.103 ×1.03). At this time, Mylandia’s expected terminal value at the end of three years is CAD65.80 using Equation 17, as follows:


Third, we calculate the sum of the present values of these expected dividends using Equation 16:


使用老师课上的方法，先把第一阶段前三年的D1D2D3求现值，第二阶段求出D4后，D4的P折现为什么是三次方？不是四次方？

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1 个答案

品职助教_七七 · 2024年02月15日

嗨，爱思考的PZer你好：


股票的折现基于的是下一期的股利。

也就是已知D4后，基于D4的模型求出来的是在3时点的P值，故该P折现回0时点就需要折3次而不是4次。

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努力的时光都是限量版，加油！

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