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沪上小王子 · 2024年02月10日

求一个关于“today的CF变化”的明确的判断,不能这么模糊

NO.PZ2022123002000002

问题如下:

Rosario Delgado is an investment manager in Spain. Delgado’s client, Max Rivera, seeks assistance with his well-diversified investment portfolio denominated in US dollars.

Rivera’s reporting currency is the euro, and he is concerned about his US dollar exposure. His portfolio IPS requires monthly rebalancing, at a minimum. The portfolio’s market value is USD2.5 million. Given Rivera’s risk aversion, Delgado is considering a monthly hedge using either a one-month forward contract or one-month futures contract.

Assume Rivera’s portfolio was perfectly hedged. It is now time to rebalance the portfolio and roll the currency hedge forward one month. The relevant data for rebalancing are provided in Exhibit 1.


Calculate the net cash flow (in euros) to maintain the desired hedge. Show your calculations.

选项:

解释:

Correct Answer:

When hedging one month ago, Delgado would have sold USD2,500,000 one month forward against the euro. Now, with the US dollar-denominated portfolio increasing in value to USD2,650,000, a mismatched FX swap is needed to settle the initial expiring forward contract and establish a new hedge given the higher market value of the US dollar-denominated portfolio.

To calculate the net cash flow (in euros) to maintain the desired hedge, the following steps are necessary:

1. Buy USD2,500,000 at the spot rate. Buying US dollars against the euro means selling euros, which is the base currency in the EUR/USD spot rate. Therefore, the offer side of the market must be used to calculate the outflow in euros.

USD2,500,000 × 0.8876 = EUR2,219,000.

2. Sell USD2,650,000 at the spot rate adjusted for the one-month forward points (all-in forward rate). Selling the US dollar against the euro means buying euros, which is the base currency in the EUR/USD spot rate. Therefore, the bid side of the market must be used to calculate the inflow in euros.

All-in forward rate = 0.8875 + (20/10,000) = 0.8895.

USD2,650,000 × 0.8895 = EUR2,357,175.

3. Therefore, the net cash flow is equal to EUR2,357,175 – EUR2,219,000, which is equal to EUR138,175.

  1. 请老师明确说明在“today”这个时间点的现金流发生情况(以我们未来参加考试时应该如何回答为标准)
  2. 我在“today”这个时间点,签订下个月的价值USD 2650000的 short forward时,我是否立刻会收到欧元现金?(请务必明确说明)
1 个答案
已采纳答案

pzqa31 · 2024年02月10日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


这道题本身是有问题的,可以说协会是做了简化处理,他问的更像是我们平仓和开新合约这两个操作会发生的CF,并且是忽略折现问题的,所以此题仅作了解即可。


题目中的本币为欧元,因此对于拥有的2.5m的美元资产需要进行外汇风险的hedge,且采用的是forward进行动态对冲,那么在0时刻需要short 一个2.5m的forward,到1时刻再重新调整hedge时,我们首先需要结束掉0时刻的forward,也就是在现货市场上买2.5m的美元,同时开始一个新的short 2.65m的forward。那么现金流主要就是买美元支付的现金流=USD2,500,000 × 0.8876 = EUR2,219,000,同时short一个新的forward获得的现金流USD2,650,000 × 【0.8875 + (20/10,000)】 = EUR2,357,175,那么最终的net cash flow=EUR2,357,175 – EUR2,219,000= EUR138,175.


这道题目确实是本身存在着一定的不严谨的地方,但目前题库的答案都是协会给出的一个官方答案,因此这道题我们重点掌握这个roll forward的一个过程,加深对这个过程的一个理解即可。正式考试的时候出题是比较严谨的,同学不用担心哈。


forward期初是没有现金流的。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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