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秋樣 · 2024年02月04日

FI - duration gap

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NO.PZ201812020100001203

问题如下:

After selecting a portfolio to immunize Schuylkill’s multiple future outflows, Chaopraya prepares a report on how this immunization strategy would respond to various interest rate scenarios. The scenario analysis is presented in Exhibit 3.




Discuss the effectiveness of Chaopraya’s immunization strategy in terms of duration gaps.

选项:

解释:

Answer:

Chaopraya’s strategy immunizes well for parallel shifts, with little deviation between the outflow portfolio and the immunizing portfolio in market value and BPV. Because the money durations are closely matched, the differences between the outflow portfolio and the immunizing portfolio in market value are small and the duration gaps (as shown by the difference in Δ Portfolio BPVs) between the outflow portfolio and the immunizing portfolio are small for both the upward and downward parallel shifts.

Chaopraya’s strategy does not immunize well for the non-parallel steepening and flattening twists (i.e., structural risks) shown in Exhibit 3. In those cases, the outflow portfolio and the immunizing portfolio market values deviate substantially and the duration gaps between the outflow portfolio and the immunizing portfolio are large.

老师好,我的答案如下,请批改。


Chaopraya’s immunization strategy is more effective when the yield curve is having a parallel shift than non-parallel shift.

when the yield curve is have an upward or downward shift, the difference between immunizing portfolio and outflow portfolio is quite small in BPV changes, cash flow changes and market value changes. 

However, when the yield curve is have a non-parallel shift, market value changes, BPV changes and cash flow changes are larger. 

 

另外我没说duration gap, 但我说了BPV changes的改变大和不大,这ok吗?cash flow yield这里的变化是怎么引起的?谢谢

1 个答案

pzqa31 · 2024年02月05日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


同学你写的这个其实就是在说duration gap,一个意思,我觉得问题不大。


然后关于cash flow yield的问题 :


首先,我们从cash flow yield(CFY)的含义来理解一下,cash flow yield就是portfolio 的IRR、YTM,如果收益率曲线不变,这个cash flow yield就是realized return。结合免疫策略来思考,我们match single liability时,因为到期要归还负债,所以资产、负债的FV要相等。构建免疫策略条件之一就是资产、负债的PV相等。所以资产、负债的折现率Cash flow yield就必然相等。当然,这道题是multiple liability,在构架免疫策略的时候,需要PVA≥PVL,我们暂且简化按照等于来理解。如果Portfolio是immunized,那么在收益率曲线发生第一次变动的时候,cash flow yield应该是不变的,因为Mac duration=investment horizon等价于Portfolio price risk=reinvestment risk,投资portfolio的realized return=YTM,就相当于收益率曲线未发生变化。所以这道题我们看到upward parellel和downward parellel的△cash flow yield difference都是0,说明免疫策略match了收益率曲线的第一次平行移动。而steepening twist和flattening twist的△cash flow yield difference都不等于0,说明免疫策略并没有match收益率曲线的非平行移动。

 


 

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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