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帕斯CFA · 2024年02月01日

为什么不是沉没成本?

NO.PZ2023090506000008

问题如下:

An analyst is analyzing company XYZ and has gathered annual invested capital and ROIC for each of the three XYZ business segments.


Based on the information provided, XYZ’s management is most likely prone to which of the following biases?

选项:

A.

Inertia

B.

Sunk cost

C.

Pet project

解释:

A is correct. Inertia can be identified by examining the level of capital investment in total, by segment, or by business line, if disclosed, and comparing it to the prior year and the return on investment. If capital investment each year is static or rising despite falling returns on investment, the analyst should question the issuer’s justification for a capital investment and whether management should consider alternative uses. In the case of XYZ, we can observe that for segments A and B, ROIC is decreasing, but both segments are getting a higher capital allocation each year.

B is incorrect because sunk cost is related to the capital allocation process in determining a potential project’s profitability. Sunk costs, or those expenses that have already been incurred, should be ignored when evaluating potential projects.

C is incorrect because a detailed view of individual investment projects undertaken by XYZ’s management is not provided. Identifying pet projects from outside the firm is difficult, because financial statements are aggregated and such projects may not meet the threshold of materiality.

管理在继续对AB部门进行投资,即使其表现(通过ROIC表示)正在恶化。我觉得他们可能在试图通过额外的投资来“弥补”之前的资本支出,而不是根据当前的表现和未来的预期来做出决策


所以我选择了沉没成本


我看了一下惯性的解释,我不太理解“如果尽管投资回报在下降,但每年的资本投资保持不变或上升,分析师应该质疑发行人对资本投资的理由,以及管理层是否应该考虑其他用途。

1 个答案
已采纳答案

王琛_品职助教 · 2024年02月02日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


1)为什么不是沉没成本?

关于沉没成本,是指过去发生的、与当前决策无关的费用,比如咨询费、广告费等

咱们在做资本分配时,原则是要忽略沉没成本

请参考基础班讲义墨迹版 P272

2)我看了一下惯性的解释,我不太理解“如果尽管投资回报在下降,但每年的资本投资保持不变或上升,分析师应该质疑发行人对资本投资的理由,以及管理层是否应该考虑其他用途。”

关于 Inertia,我之前刚好总结过,请同学先参考一下:https://class.pzacademy.com/qa/147992

如果还有疑问,可以追问或者评论,我再回答同学的后续疑问哈

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