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Darkblanca · 2024年01月31日

题目题干都不写清楚

NO.PZ2022123002000020

问题如下:

Gehlot asks Chlapowski to provide input regarding foreign exchange management. Chlapowski presents spot and forward rates in Exhibit 3. She also states:

Statement 1: A positive roll yield could be created in Dong’s portfolio by selling a USD/EUR forward contract.

Statement 2: A positive roll yield could be created in Dong’s portfolio by selling a CHF/USD forward contract.

Exhibit 3 Spot and Forward Rates

Identify which of Chlapowski’s statements is most likely to be correct based on the information provided in Exhibit 3. Calculate the forward premium or discount for each statement.

解释:

Correct Answer:

Statement 1 is correct.

Dong’s portfolio is 45% invested in German assets. USD/EUR is selling at a forward premium of 5.3% compared to the current spot rate. Dong can sell the base currency at a higher price than the current spot rate, creating a positive roll yield.

Forward premium = (1.2/1.14) – 1 = 5.3%

Statement 2 is incorrect.

CHF/USD is not in direct quote format, so the quote must be converted into a direct quote to calculate forward premium or discount.

USD/CHF spot rate = 0.99

USD/CHF six-month forward rate = 0.952

USD/CHF is trading at a discount of 3.83% and selling CHF would create a negative roll yield for Dong’s portfolio.

Forward discount = (0.952/0.99) – 1 = 3.83%

经典题拆分就拆分,信息都不给全,质量真差

1 个答案

pzqa35 · 2024年01月31日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


这道题考察的是roll yield在什么情况下为正,什么情况下为负。那么这种一个是要看long还是short的position,另外一个就是看本币和外币的一个报价形式。

这道题同学觉得不够完整是有一定道理的哈,因为题目中提到了Dong’s portfolio,但是我们没有具体给出这个portfolio的具体情况,这个确实是不够完整的哈,同学在正式考试中是不会出现这种情况的哈。

那么虽然这道题没有给出portfolio的具体情况,但是我们可以看到表3中的报价都有USD,那么USD就应该是本币,其余的都是外币的。同时statement中也告诉了我们相应的头寸都是short。

那么对于statement1,报价形式为USD/EUR, 我们可以看到EUR是一个contango的状态,那么对于short方而言,roll yield就是positive的,所以statement1是正确的。

对于statement2,报价形式为CHF/USD,这个是一个非直接的标价方法,那么我们可以看到此时美元是处于contango的状态,那么对应的就是CHF是一个backwardation的状态,因为外汇市场上一切都是相对的。那么此时如果short CHF,那么roll yield就是negative的,所以statement2是错误的说法。

对于这道题,我们可以重点掌握一下解题思路,就是一看头寸,二看报价方式,最终来判断roll yield的情况,当然同学的意见也很宝贵,我们后续也会进行相应的改进哈。

 

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