NO.PZ2022122601000005
问题如下:
Cambo compares her business cycle forecasting approach to the approach used by the chief economist. Cambo bases her equity market forecast on a time-series model using a composite index of leading indicators as the key input, whereas the chief economist uses a detailed econometric model to generate his economic forecasts.
Discuss strengths and
weaknesses of the economic forecasting approaches used by Cambo and the chief
economist.
选项:
解释:
坎博的预测方法
优点:
•基于领先指标的方法很简单,因为它需要遵循有限数量的经济/金融变量。
•可以专注于个人或组合变量,随时可用,易于跟踪。
•专注于识别/预测商业周期的转折点。
缺点:
•经常修改的数据会导致“前瞻性”偏差。
•作为历史分析输入的“当前”数据不可靠。
•样品过拟合。可能高估了预测的准确性。
•可能对经济前景发出错误信号。
•可能只提供二元方向指导(否/是)。
首席经济学家的预测方法
优点“:
•计量经济模型可以非常稳健,可以检查许多潜在变量的影响。
•可以收集新数据并在模型中一致使用,以快速生成输出。
模型对于模拟外生变量变化的影响是有用的。
•对预报员施加纪律和一致性,并要求建模人员根据模型结果重新评估先前的观点。
缺点:
•模型是复杂和耗时的制定。
•需要对外生变量进行未来预测,这增加了模型的估计误差。
•模型可能是错误指定的,变量之间的关系可能会随着时间的推移而改变。
•模型可能给人精确的错觉。
•模型在预测转折点方面表现不佳。
Cambo's forecasting approach is leading economic indicator.
strengths:it can give the forecast of turning point, more intuitive,
weaknesses: it may give false signal of turning point, frequent revision may be needed.
chief economist's approach is the econometric model.
strengths: it's straightforward and can provide consistency of forecast.
weaknesses:it may provide false sense of precision, very costly, the data and model may not always be available.
你好老师,麻烦给我批改下答案。我每个优缺点写两个够了吗?谢谢