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考拉 · 2024年01月26日

如果用roll yield 的公式解题,怎么思考?

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NO.PZ202208100100000505

问题如下:

Based on the information provided in Exhibit 3, the most appropriate risk neutral strategy is for FB to:

选项:

A.

over-hedge AUD and not hedge CHF.

B.

under-hedge AUD and over-hedge CHF.

C.

under-hedge CHF and not hedge AUD.

解释:

Solution

A is correct. Because of equity investments in Australia and Switzerland, FB has long currency exposure to AUD and CHF. The appropriate risk-neutral strategy is to over-hedge (hedge ratio > 1) AUD and not hedge CHF. The AUD is selling at a forward premium of 2.27%, which means that the expected roll yield for a short hedge in AUD is 2.27%. Furthermore, the AUD is expected to depreciate by 3.28%, which means the short position in the AUD gains 3.28%. Thus, a short hedge of the AUD is appropriate. The CHF is at a forward discount of 2.64%, which means that the expected roll yield for a short hedge of CHF is –2.64%. The CHF is expected to appreciate 1.32%, which means that a short position in CHF would lose 1.32%. Thus, in this instance it would not be appropriate to hedge the CHF.

B is incorrect. The appropriate risk-neutral strategy is to over-hedge (hedge ratio > 1) AUD and not hedge CHF.

C is incorrect. The appropriate risk-neutral strategy is to over-hedge (hedge ratio > 1) AUD and not hedge CHF.

中文解析:

由于持有的是AUDCHF的外币资产,因此是担心外币会贬值的。

表格中的“Six-Month Forward Rate”是如果使用远期合约对冲可以锁定的汇率;

Six-Month Forecast Spot Rate”是如果不对冲,预计在外币资产投资期结束的时候将外币转成本币可以使用的汇率。

如果Six-Month Forward Rate< Six-Month Forecast Spot Rate,说明签订远期合约会让我们将来以较低的汇率转成本币,对我们是不利的,此时应该降低对冲比率,即under hedge,或者不hedge

如果Six-Month Forward Rate>Six-Month Forecast Spot Rate,说明签订远期合约会让我们将来以较高的汇率转成本币,对我们是有利的,此时应该提高对冲比率,即over hedge

因此本题应该选择A

解析是利用Six-Month Forward Rate和Six-Month Forecast Spot Rate对比,都在6月后的时间点比。

如果用roll yield 的公式解题呢?对比Six-Month Forward Rate和current SPOT RATE,因为是short forward, 如果Six-Month Forward Rate大于current SPOT RATE, roll yield 大于0,要hedge.这样也能得到同样的答案。


1 个答案
已采纳答案

pzqa31 · 2024年01月26日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


是这样的,我们在计算roll yield的时候,其实是不考虑金经理的观点的。我们只是判断用forward做hedge到底合不合算,那如果roll yield大于零。那咱们就应该使用forward是比较合算的,因为相当于我可以额外获得一个收益,那么这个收益就会降低我的成本。


但是在判断到底是hedge还是不hedge的时候,你必须是要考虑基金经理的观点的,说白了就是对比forward rate和forecast spot rate.


具体这道题是这样的,因为预测AUD贬值(表格第四列和第二列的汇率比较),并且远期合约可以锁定一个较高的汇率,所以选择hedge,或者over hedge。


因为如果市场预测是贬值的,但是远期的价格更低,低于了预测的6个月后的汇率,此时虽然是长预测AUD会贬值,但是签远期锁定的汇率比预测的还低,此时就不能选择hedge,更不用说over hedge了。

同理:

预测CHF升值,并且看到远期合约约定的汇率没有预测的汇率高(2.4641<2.5642,),所以选择不hedge。

如果仍然是预测CHF升值,但是远期合约锁定了一个更高的汇率,远高于第四列的数据,此时还是需要hedge的。

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2024-10-11 15:49 2 · 回答