NO.PZ202208100100000505
问题如下:
Based on the information provided in Exhibit 3, the most appropriate risk neutral strategy is for FB to:
选项:
A.over-hedge AUD and not hedge CHF.
under-hedge AUD and over-hedge CHF.
under-hedge CHF and not hedge AUD.
解释:
Solution
A is correct. Because of equity investments in Australia and Switzerland, FB has long currency exposure to AUD and CHF. The appropriate risk-neutral strategy is to over-hedge (hedge ratio > 1) AUD and not hedge CHF. The AUD is selling at a forward premium of 2.27%, which means that the expected roll yield for a short hedge in AUD is 2.27%. Furthermore, the AUD is expected to depreciate by 3.28%, which means the short position in the AUD gains 3.28%. Thus, a short hedge of the AUD is appropriate. The CHF is at a forward discount of 2.64%, which means that the expected roll yield for a short hedge of CHF is –2.64%. The CHF is expected to appreciate 1.32%, which means that a short position in CHF would lose 1.32%. Thus, in this instance it would not be appropriate to hedge the CHF.
B is incorrect. The appropriate risk-neutral strategy is to over-hedge (hedge ratio > 1) AUD and not hedge CHF.
C is incorrect. The appropriate risk-neutral strategy is to over-hedge (hedge ratio > 1) AUD and not hedge CHF.
中文解析:
由于持有的是AUD和CHF的外币资产,因此是担心外币会贬值的。
表格中的“Six-Month Forward Rate”是如果使用远期合约对冲可以锁定的汇率;
“Six-Month Forecast Spot Rate”是如果不对冲,预计在外币资产投资期结束的时候将外币转成本币可以使用的汇率。
如果Six-Month Forward Rate< Six-Month
Forecast Spot Rate,说明签订远期合约会让我们将来以较低的汇率转成本币,对我们是不利的,此时应该降低对冲比率,即under hedge,或者不hedge。
如果Six-Month Forward Rate>Six-Month
Forecast Spot Rate,说明签订远期合约会让我们将来以较高的汇率转成本币,对我们是有利的,此时应该提高对冲比率,即over hedge。
因此本题应该选择A。
解析是利用Six-Month Forward Rate和Six-Month Forecast Spot Rate对比,都在6月后的时间点比。
如果用roll yield 的公式解题呢?对比Six-Month Forward Rate和current SPOT RATE,因为是short forward, 如果Six-Month Forward Rate大于current SPOT RATE, roll yield 大于0,要hedge.这样也能得到同样的答案。