NO.PZ2022122601000005
问题如下：
Cambo compares her business cycle forecasting approach to the approach used by the chief economist. Cambo bases her equity market forecast on a time-series model using a composite index of leading indicators as the key input, whereas the chief economist uses a detailed econometric model to generate his economic forecasts.
Discuss strengths and
weaknesses of the economic forecasting approaches used by Cambo and the chief
economist.
选项：
解释：
坎博的预测方法
优点：
•基于领先指标的方法很简单，因为它需要遵循有限数量的经济/金融变量。
•可以专注于个人或组合变量，随时可用，易于跟踪。
•专注于识别/预测商业周期的转折点。
缺点：
•经常修改的数据会导致“前瞻性”偏差。
•作为历史分析输入的“当前”数据不可靠。
•样品过拟合。可能高估了预测的准确性。
•可能对经济前景发出错误信号。
•可能只提供二元方向指导(否/是)。
首席经济学家的预测方法
优点“：
•计量经济模型可以非常稳健，可以检查许多潜在变量的影响。
•可以收集新数据并在模型中一致使用，以快速生成输出。
模型对于模拟外生变量变化的影响是有用的。
•对预报员施加纪律和一致性，并要求建模人员根据模型结果重新评估先前的观点。
缺点：
•模型是复杂和耗时的制定。
•需要对外生变量进行未来预测，这增加了模型的估计误差。
•模型可能是错误指定的，变量之间的关系可能会随着时间的推移而改变。
•模型可能给人精确的错觉。
•模型在预测转折点方面表现不佳。
Cambo' leading indicators approach:
strengths:
1. intuitive and simple to construct
2.can forecast turning points
3.ma y be available from third parties.
4. easy to track
weakness:
1.may give false signals
2. provide no more than binary guidance
3.subject to frequent revision
4. overfitted in sample
chief economist's approach is economic model
strength:
1.models can be quite robost
2. can quickly generate output
3.provide quantitative estimates
4.impose consistency or discipline on analysis
weakness
- complex and time consuming
- relationship may not static and model may be mis-specified
- give false sense of precision
- rarely forecast turning points well
