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worldcup · 2024年01月18日

bond yield 是长期的,题目暗示长期利率在下降呀

NO.PZ2022122601000007

问题如下:

Observation 3The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase, with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions.

Based on Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yield curve in the near term to:

选项:

A.invert B. flatten C.

steepen

解释:

Correct Answer: C

C is correct. The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase (curve is flat to inverted), with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions (i.e., bond yields are declining). The curve will most likely steepen near term, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phase of the business cycle, and be the steepest on the cusp of the initial recovery phase.

中文解析:

正确答案:C

C正确。Y国当前的收益率曲线表明,商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平坦到倒挂),债券收益率开始反映紧缩状况(即债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线很可能在短期内变得更陡,与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡相一致,并且在初始复苏阶段的尖端是最陡的。

observation 3明确说现在business cycle 是在slowdown然后bond yield 反应contractory pressure (就是bond yield 下降)bond yield 是长期的,题目暗示长期利率在下降啊。


business cycle分析中说 slowdown阶段 yield curve要么是flatten,may invert。现在题目又暗示bond yield 下降,那不就是invert么

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2024年01月18日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


Hello,亲爱的同学~


不是同学这样分析的。


我们先看知识点:原版书在business cycle这里有一个知识点:对于contractory阶段,收益率曲线是steepen的,同学记忆一下这个知识点。

结合本题,本题的已知条件是bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions,因此收益率曲线就是对应contraction阶段的steepen。


至于同学说的bond yield 下降,长期利率下降的,这是正确的。

但是长期利率下降,并不一定会让收益率曲线inverted。因为同学在这里忽视了短期利率的变动。

长期利率下降的同时,短期利率下降得更快,曲线还是steepen的。

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