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506623496 · 2024年01月15日

look-ahead bias.

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NO.PZ202207040100000101

问题如下:

XTZZ’s approach to analyzing government-reported data most likely reduces:

选项:

A.look-ahead bias. B.survivorship bias. C.model overfitting.

解释:

Solution

A is correct. XTZZ’s approach prevents the use of “revised” government data that are not known when the data are initially reported. By not incorporating revised government data until they are actually revealed, XTZZ reduces look-ahead bias.

B is incorrect. Survivorship bias occurs when analysis on past data ignores firms that have ceased to exist at some point during the analysis period.

C is incorrect. Model overfitting occurs when the model fits the past data by finding a pre-conceived relationship (i.e., making the model specifications biased toward the pre-conceived relationship) or when the model is biased toward patterns that are specific only to the past data.

look-ahead bias 能结合本题再解释一下吗,一直不是理解的很透彻

1 个答案
已采纳答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2024年01月16日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


例如政府在4月份发布了3月份的GDP数据,例如GDP增长8%

而政府在12月份,又认为4月份发布的3月GDP数据不对,修改了3月GDP数据,认为3月GDP增长率不是8%,而是10%


那么我们在量化模型回测历史的过程中,在历史的4月份,策略要用3月的GDP数据,调用哪个GDP数据呢。

如果调用的是8%,那么没有look-ahead bias 

如果调用的是10%,那么有look-ahead bias 

因为实际上在4月份的时候,我们只知道3月GDP是8%,并不知道3月的GDP实际上是10%。

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