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elwin · 2024年01月15日

b为什么不对?

NO.PZ2018091706000061

问题如下:

Assume that the DM country has what is considered a low-yield safe haven currency while the EM country has a high-yield currency whose value is more exposed to fluctuations in the global economic growth rate. All else equal, the exchange rate for the EM currency will most likely depreciate if the:


选项:

A.

long-run equilibrium value of the high-yield currency is revised upward

B.

nominal yield spread between the EM and DM countries increases over time

C.

expected inflation differential between the EM and DM countries is revised upward

解释:

All else equal, an increase in the expected inflation differential should lead to depreciation of the EM currency.

解析:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

根据上述公式。所以AB选项错误。

在其它条件相同的情况下,预期通胀率的扩大会加两国的风险溢价之差,从而应会导致新兴市场货币贬值。所以C选项正确。


b为什么不对 名义利率差距增大说明通胀率差距增大因为根据fisher的公式实际利率是相同的。那么b选项和c选项不是一个意思吗?

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2024年01月16日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


b为什么不对?

Hello,亲爱的同学~

我们先看知识点,本题知识点见以下基础讲义。


解释一下:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

实际汇率 = 均衡汇率 + 实际利率的利差 — 风险溢价之差。


在本题,risk premium就是通胀,通胀本身是风险溢价的一种。


可以这样理解:

就是说对于实际的交易汇率,我们在均衡的汇率水平上要对利率和风险因素进行区分,

实际利率水平高,说明国家的潜在GDP增速快,就会引起实际汇率升值。

如果风险溢价比较高(在本题是通胀较高),意味着国家的风险很高,会造成实际汇率贬值。


再看B选项,B不对。

因为公式里的利差,是real 利差。

B选项的利差,是名义利差。

由于名义利差 = 实际利差 + 通胀差

因此,名义利差扩大,未必会贬值。

要看名义利差的扩大的原因是什么。

如果名义利差扩大,是由于实际利差扩大引起的,汇率会升值。

如果名义利差扩大,是由于通胀扩大引起的,汇率会贬值。



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