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蕾 · 2024年01月15日

为什么不选allocation1

NO.PZ2018031301000005

问题如下:

Viktoria Johansson is newly appointed as manager of ABC Corporation’s pension fund. The current market value of the fund’s assets is $10 billion, and the present value of the fund’s liabilities is $8.5 billion. The fund has historically been managed using an asset-only approach, but Johansson recommends to ABC’s board of directors that they adopt a liability-relative approach, specifically the hedging/return-seeking portfolios approach. Johansson assumes that the returns of the fund’s liabilities are driven by changes in the returns of index-linked government bonds. Exhibit 1 presents three potential asset allocation choices for the fund.

Exhibit 1 Potential Asset Allocations Choices for ABC Corp’s Pension Fund


Determine which asset allocation in Exhibit 1 would be most appropriate for Johansson given her recommendation. Justify your response.

选项:

解释:

■ Allocation 3 is most appropriate.
■ To fully hedge the fund’s liabilities, 85% ($8.5 billion/$10.0 billion) of the fund’s assets would be linked to index-linked government bonds.
■ Residual $1.5 billion surplus would be invested into a return-seeking portfolio.

The pension fund currently has a surplus of $1.5 billion ($10.0 billion – $8.5 billion). To adopt a hedging/return-seeking portfolios approach, Johansson would first hedge the liabilities by allocating an amount equal to the present value of the fund’s liabilities, $8.5 billion, to a hedging portfolio. The hedging portfolio must include assets whose returns are driven by the same factors that drive the returns of the liabilities, which in this case are the index-linked government bonds.

So, Johansson should allocate 85% ($8.5 billion/$10.0 billion) of the fund’s assets to index-linked government bonds. Te residual $1.5 billion surplus would then be invested into a return-seeking portfolio. Therefore, Allocation 3 would be the most appropriate asset allocation for the fund because it allocates 85% of the fund’s assets to index-linked government bonds and the remainder to a return seeking portfolio consisting of corporate bonds and equities.

Allocation 1 is appropriate, because:

the basic form is suitable for overfunded portfolio

invest should be conseavative, the volatility of allocation1 is lowest

stability and liquidity should be considered , there is cash in allocation 1 

invest in index-linked government bonds can match the risk factor of liability better 


以上哪里错了

 

1 个答案

lynn_品职助教 · 2024年01月15日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


Allocation 1 is appropriate, because:


the basic form is suitable for overfunded portfolio


invest should be conseavative, the volatility of allocation1 is lowest


stability and liquidity should be considered , there is cash in allocation 1 


invest in index-linked government bonds can match the risk factor of liability better 




以上哪里错了



hedging/return-seeking 首先要考虑的是hedging portfolio,只有liabilities全部覆盖了,多出来的部分才能进行return-seeking。


所以在传统的hedging/return-seeking方法下,一定是 overfunded ,否则没有多余的部分进行return-seeking。


因为liabilities已经全部覆盖了,也就是说只要有未来现金流的流出,hedging portfolio这部分就有现金流的流入,完全匹配上了,因此return-seeking的部分可以放心大胆的投资,不需要再保守了。


所以同学的这句分析是对的the basic form is suitable for overfunded portfolio


但是这句话错了invest should be conservative, the volatility of allocation1 is lowest


另外这道题还有一个非常关键的题眼


the returns of the fund’s liabilities are driven by changes in the returns of index-linked government bonds这句话很重要,是给出信息点的句子,


这句话的意思是负债和抗通胀债券的收益的驱动因素是一样的,即收益率一样,不会出现hedging portfolio就是抗通胀债券的现值低于liability现值的情况。


也就是说能够很好地匹配fund liabilities的是 index-linked government, 而Allocation 3 的 index-linked government占比正好是85%,所以最合适。

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