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秋樣 · 2024年01月10日

CME - singer-terhaar解释

NO.PZ2022122601000027

问题如下:

Bader then uses the Singer–Terhaar model and the final shrinkage-estimated VCV matrix to determine the equilibrium expected equity returns for all international asset classes by country. Three of the markets under consideration are located in Country A (developed market), Country B (emerging market), and Country C (emerging market). Bader projects that in relation to the global market, the equity market in Country A will remain highly integrated, the equity market in Country B will become more segmented, and the equity market in Country C will become more fully integrated.

Based on expectations for changes in integration with the global market, all else being equal, the Singer–Terhaar model implies that Bader should shift capital from Country A to:

选项:

A.only Country B B.only Country C C.both Countries B and C

解释:

Correct Answer: B

Bader expects the equity market in Country C (an emerging market) to become more fully integrated with the global market while Country A (a developed market) remains highly integrated. All else being equal, the Singer–Terhaar model implies that when a market becomes more globally integrated (segmented), its required return should decline (rise). As prices adjust to a lower (higher) required return, the market should deliver an even higher (lower) return than was previously expected or required by the market. Therefore, the allocation to markets that are moving toward integration should be increased. If a market is moving toward integration, its increased allocation will come at the expense of markets that are already highly integrated. This will typically entail a shift from developed markets to emerging markets.

中文解析:

Bader预计,C国(新兴市场)的股票市场将更加充分地与全球市场整合,而A国(发达市场)仍将保持高度整合。在其他条件相同的情况下,辛格-特哈尔模型表明,当一个市场变得更加全球一体化(细分)时,其要求回报应该下降(上升)。当价格调整到更低(更高)的要求回报时,市场应该提供比之前预期或市场要求更高(更低)的回报。因此,应该增加对正在走向一体化的市场的分配。如果一个市场正在走向一体化,其增加的分配将以牺牲已经高度一体化的市场为代价。这通常需要从发达市场转向新兴市场。

你好老师,这道题我不理解。是不是这里求的还是Risk premium,因为投资C会让RP变低,所以选C?

ST模型求出的是risk premium,是要求回报率的一环吗?这个知识点理解不深。

2 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2024年01月12日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


因此,应该增加对正在走向一体化的市场的分配。如果一个市场正在走向一体化,其增加的分配将以牺牲已经高度一体化的市场为代价。这通常需要从发达市场转向新兴市场。这个怎么理解呢?不能选一个more segmented市场只是因为折现率高??

是的,投资现在折现率高的资产,等将来折现率下降,资产价格就能上涨,投资者可以从价格上涨中获利。

新兴市场折现率高,投资新兴市场。一旦新兴市场变得越来越像发达市场,投资者就可以获利。


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笛子_品职助教 · 2024年01月11日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


Hello,亲爱的同学~

ST模型计算出来的risk premium,是要求回报率中的一环。

要求回报率与价格是反向关系。要求回报率越高,价格越低。要求回报率越低,价格越高。

当要求回报率由高到低的时候,价格也由低到高,投资者从价格上涨中获得回报。

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