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鹏鹏 · 2024年01月02日

能解释下C选项吗

NO.PZ2022062601000015

问题如下:

Bourne said that the risk control director of Fund A used a linear factor model to understand risk exposure in the process of constructing and monitoring Fund A's strategy. Bourne constructed a model using the following macro-risk factors such as stock risk, interest rate risk, commodity risk, credit risk, and volatility risk. When explaining the model to peers, Bourne stated that the portion of hedge fund returns that were not explained by these risk factors can be attributed to manager alpha or random errors. There is a high correlation between credit risk and volatility risk factors. In order to solve the multicollinearity problem, Bourne excluded the factor of volatility risk, as the model has a higher R2 when credit risk is included instead of volatility risk.

Is Bourne's construction and conclusion of a linear factor model most likely correct?

选项:

A.

Yes, he is correct.

B.

No, he is incorrect with regard to attributing unexplained returns.

C.

No, he is incorrect with regard to dropping volatility as a risk factor.

解释:

B is correct. Bourne concludes that unexplained returns can be attributed to alpha or random errors, and neglects to recognize that omitted risk factors can also lead to unexplained returns. For example, other risk factors such as currency are not included in the model, which may help explain returns and further increase R2.

A is incorrect. Bourne's conclusion about unexplained returns is incorrect.

C is incorrect. Due to the multicollinearity problem, Bourne correctly reduced the volatility risk factor and included credit risk, resulting in a higher R2 of the model.

B是正确的。Bourne得出结论,无法解释的回报可归因于阿尔法或随机误差,并忽略了omitted的风险因素也会导致无法解释的收益。例如,其他风险因素,如货币,不包括在该模型中,这可能有助于解释回报并进一步增加R2


A不正确。Bourne关于无法解释的回报的结论是错误的。

C不正确。由于多重共线性问题,Bourne正确地降低了波动性风险因子,并且包括信用风险导致模型的R2更高。

基金经理怎么操作的 怎么降低风险的?分析下为什么是对的

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2024年01月03日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


Hello,亲爱的同学~

这道题并不是基金经理是如何交易,如何买卖的。

这道题是指:对基金的收益来源进行回归分析,从而确认基金的收益来自于哪些风险因子。

这里并不存在,基金经理如果通过交易和操作,来降低风险的问题。


C选项涉及多重共线性的概念,多重共线性是一个统计学里的术语。

含义是: 线性回归模型中的解释变量之间,由于存在精确相关关系或高度相关关系,而使模型估计失真或难以估计准确。


在对基金收益进行统计回归的过程中,回归方程里的各个因子,需要独立,没有相关性。

如果2个因子高度相关,则这2个因子本质是一个因子,那么就不适合把2个因子都放在回归方程里。这就是多重共线性。


发现有多重共线性问题,处理方式为:对于2个相关性很高的因子,保留其中1个就可以。

本题的回归方程里:信贷风险和波动性风险因素之间存在高度相关性,因此,可以排除波动性风险因素,只保留信贷风险。

R2提高,也侧面反映了,对于多重共线性问题,这样的处理方式,在统计上是正确的。





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