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SYc · 2023年12月20日

想问下economic significance

NO.PZ2017092702000132

问题如下:

An analyst tests the profitability of a trading strategy with the null hypothesis being that the average abnormal return before trading costs equals zero. The calculated t-statistic is 2.802, with critical values of ± 2.756 at significance level α = 0.01. After considering trading costs, the strategy’s return is near zero. The results are most likely:

选项:

A.

statistically but not economically significant.

B.

economically but not statistically significant.

C.

neither statistically nor economically significant.

解释:

A is correct.

The hypothesis is a two-tailed formulation. The t-statistic of 2.802 falls outside the critical rejection points of less than –2.756 and greater than 2.756, therefore the null hypothesis is rejected; the result is statistically significant. However, despite the statistical results, trying to profit on the strategy is not likely to be economically meaningful because the return is near zero after transaction costs

本题的|test statistics|>|critical value|,即2.802>2.756。所以检验的结果是拒绝strategy's return=0的原假设,此时就是statistically significant。

“After considering trading costs, the strategy’s return is near zero”,说明从经济意义上是不值得去做这个策略的,即not economically significant。

Economic s是否显著是怎么判断的呢?还需要带入统计假设里面去看是拒绝H0吗?

1 个答案

品职助教_七七 · 2023年12月21日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


economically significant是在statistically significant基础上的后续判断。

首先要看假设检验的结果是不是大于0。假设检验的结果大于0(statistically significant),说明纯从统计的角度来看,这个策略是可以赚钱的。如果连统计上都不赚钱,就直接不用往下看了。

再看这个return扣除交易费用后是否依然大于0。如果是,就是economically significant,说明考虑了实际交易的情况后,这个策略也能赚钱。


本题题干直接给出了考虑交易费用后的结果:“After considering trading costs, the strategy’s return is near zero”。说明实际操作这个策略的收益约等于0,也就是从经济意义上不值得做这个策略(not economically significant)。

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