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尚好的青春 · 2023年12月18日

C过通货膨胀率将要下降,不应该是个衰退的指标吗

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NO.PZ202105270100000505

问题如下:

Based on Bader’s expectations for current account secular trends as shown in Exhibit 1, Bader should reallocate capital, all else being equal, from:

选项:

A.Country A to Country C. B.Country B to Country A. C.Country C to Country A.

解释:

A is correct.

Bader should reallocate capital from Country A, which is expected to have a secularly rising current account deficit, to Country C, which is expected to have a secularly rising current account surplus. A rising current account deficit will tend to put upward pressure on real required returns and downward pressure on asset prices, whereas a rising current account surplus (or narrowing deficit) will put downward pressure on real required returns and upward pressure on asset prices. Analysts should consider reallocation of portfolio assets from countries with secularly rising current account deficits to those with secularly rising current account surpluses (or narrowing deficits).

巴德尔应该将资本从A国(预计经常账户赤字将长期上升)重新配置到C国(预计经常账户盈余将长期上升)。不断上升的经常账户赤字往往会给实际所需回报带来上行压力,给资产价格带来下行压力,而不断上升的经常账户盈余(或赤字缩小)则会给实际所需回报带来下行压力,给资产价格带来上行压力。分析师应考虑将投资组合资产从经常账户赤字长期上升的国家重新配置到经常账户盈余长期上升(或赤字不断缩小)的国家。


B和C 之间相比的话,是不是B更有吸引力一些。如果有选项是从A 国转移到B国,是不是应该优先选B国?

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2023年12月19日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


过通货膨胀率将要下降,不应该是个衰退的指标吗

Hello,亲爱的同学~

我们先掌握一个知识点:国际资本转移最大的影响因素,是经常账户。


掌握该知识点后,我们再结合本题。

从本题看:C国是贸易盈余,而A国是贸易赤字,因此要从A国转移到C国。

至于通胀等因素,只是本题的干扰项。


B和C 之间相比的话,是不是B更有吸引力一些。如果有选项是从A 国转移到B国,是不是应该优先选B国?

同学的理解正确,单纯比较B和A,B确实优于A。

本题的情况是:C优于B,B优于A。

因此,从A国转移资金,仍然是优先选C国。

----------------------------------------------
虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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