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露露66 · 2023年11月27日

老师,基本面到底是看什么,不是看pb 这些吗

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NO.PZ201809170400000401

问题如下:

Which fund manager’s investing approach is most consistent with fundamental management?

选项:

A.

Furlings

B.

Asgard

C.

Tokra

解释:

A is correct. Furlings combines a top-down and bottom-up approach, but in both cases, the allocation process is significantly determined according to the managers’ discretion and judgement. There is a strong emphasis on understanding financial reporting, and the sector managers focus on a relatively small number for firms. They also extend their analysis to other areas associated with fundamental management, such as valuation, competitive advantages, and governance. Finally, Furlings’s top-down process depends largely on the views and experience of its head manager.

B is incorrect. Asgard has many of the attributes associated with a fundamental manager. It invests in a relatively small number of securities and focuses on the companies’ business model, valuations, and future growth prospects. Because of the scope of the securities coverage by each manager, however, Asgard depends heavily on technology and tools to support screening and ranking of securities attractiveness. Each manager can use his judgement to build his own quantitative models. Furthermore, the allocation process, although overlaid by a management team, also depends heavily on technology. Asgard has characteristics of both fundamental and quantitative managers.

C is incorrect. Tokra exhibits the characteristics of a quantitative manager. The firm uses quantitative metrics to rank securities based on valuation, profitability, and momentum criteria and uses portfolio optimization to determine the final allocation. Tokra holds many positions typical of quantitative approaches.

老师,基本面到底是看什么,不是看pb 这些吗

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2023年11月28日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


老师,基本面到底是看什么,不是看pb 这些吗


基本面的特征,一是主观。二是预测。


主观是指根据经验来做分析,而不是寻找数据里的模式。


预测是指分析公司的前景,分析公司未来的现金流,而不是只看公司现在与过去的各种走势指标和财务指标。

同学可以结合一二级学过的现金流折现模型(DCF),现金流折现模型需要预测未来的股息。投资过程中使用了DCF模型,就是典型的基本面分析。


那么如何判断主观呢,如果是根据经验做投资,则一般是主观。

结合本题:下面划红线的知识点均是主观才有的描述


那么如何做预测呢,我们可以分析公司的品牌,公司在行业里的地位,公司的竞争优势,来帮我们做预测。

结合本题:红线部分是做预测的时候,需要考虑的要素。


回到同学的PB指标:PB只是一个静态指标,不涉及预测未来。基本面和量化都可以把PB作为分析流程的一部分,因此PB本身不能区分基本面和量化。如果只看静态的PB数据指标,不对未来的情形做主观的分析预测,那么就不属于基本面分析。如果既看PB,又预测公司未来的盈利表现,那么就属于基本面分析。

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

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