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Christinafx · 2023年11月19日

b选项

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ201601050100000303

问题如下:

3. Which of the following market developments would be most favorable for Subscriber 3's trading plan?

选项:

A.

A narrower interest rate differential.

B.

A higher forward premium for INR/USD.

C.

Higher volatility in INR/USD spot rate movements.

解释:

B is correct.

Subscriber 3's carry trade strategy is equivalent to trading the forward rate bias, based on the historical evidence that the forward rate is not the center of the distribution for the spot rate. Applying this bias involves buying currencies selling at a forward discount and selling currencies trading at a forward premium. So a higher forward premium on the lower yielding currencythe USD, the base currency in the INR/USD quotewould effectively reflect a more profitable trading opportunity. That is, a higher premium for buying or selling the USD forward is associated with a lower US interest rate compared to India. This would mean a wider interest rate differential in favor of Indian instruments, and hence potentially more carry trade profits.

A is incorrect because Subscriber 3's carry trade strategy depends on a wide interest rate differential between the high-yield country (India) and the low-yield country (the United States). The differential should be wide enough to compensate for the unhedged currency risk exposure.

C is incorrect because a guide to the carry trade‘s riskiness is the volatility of spot rates on the involved currencies, with rapid movements in exchange rates often associated with a panicked unwinding of carry trades. All things being equal, higher volatility is worse for carry trades.

中文解析:

B选项:higher forward premium或者表述为larger forward premium,是两国利差变大的意思,所以在carry trade中看到这个表述就直接等同为两国利差变大。

可以从下面这个角度来理解:

(1)我们可以用covered interest rate parity(抛补的利率平价公式)来解释,根据. covered interest rate parity:F/S0=(1+r_A)/(1+r_B) (汇率标价形式为A/B); 其中r_A

(2)得到F

(3)所以,如果F/S0=(1+r_A)/(1+r_B)这个公式中r_A

2. 执行carry trade的条件有二,一是两国利差大,二是汇率变化很小。因此A选项和C选项的表述是错误的

明白老师说的larger forward premium 等于利差大的这个点

但针对这题衍生出来的问题:这里carry trade中 有forward premium的currency应该是USD 对吧。

另外就是如果说一对currency pair (INR/USD)has larger forward premium 指的是哪个currency?

2 个答案
已采纳答案

pzqa31 · 2023年11月20日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


Higher forward premium 或者表述为Larger forward premium,都是两国的利差变得更大的意思,这个表述我们要熟悉一下的哈~


低利率货币USD,本身trade at forward premium ,因此INR/USD也是trade at forward premium,更高的forward premium,即两国利差会更大。


美金是forward premium哈。

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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!

Christinafx · 2023年11月22日

好的谢谢老师!

pzqa31 · 2023年11月23日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


不客气,加油哦^^

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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