卖看涨不应该在价格上升的情况下亏损吗

问题如下：

Company XYZ operates in the U.S. On April 1, 2009, it has a net trade receivable of EUR 5,000,000 from an export contract to Germany. The company expects to receive this amount on Oct. 1, 2009. The CFO of XYZ wants to protect the value of this receivable. On April 1, 2009, the EUR spot rate is 1.34, and the 6-month EUR forward rate is 1.33. The CFO can lock in an exchange rate by taking a position in the forward contract. Alternatively, he can sell a 6-month EUR 5,000,000 call option with strike price of 1.34. The CFO thinks that selling an option is better than taking a forward position because if the EUR goes up, XYZ can take delivery of the USD at 1.34, which is better than the outright forward rate of 1.33. If the EUR goes down, the contract will not be exercised. So, XYZ will pocket the premium obtained from selling the call option.

What can be concluded about the CFO's analysis?

选项：

A.

CFO's analysis is correct. The company is better off whichever way the EUR rate goes.

B.

CFO's analysis is not correct. The company will suffer if the EUR goes up sharply.

C.

CFO's analysis is not correct. The company will suffer if the EUR moves within a narrow range.

D.

CFO's analysis is not correct. The company will suffer if the EUR goes down sharply.

解释：

The CFO's analysis is incorrect because there is unlimited downside risk. The option premium received is a fixed amount, and if the EUR declines sharply, the value of the underlying receivable goes down as well. If instead the EUR moves in a narrow range, that would be good, but there is no guarantee of course that this will occur.