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萧萧 · 2023年11月05日

短期超调模型下,扩张的货币政策会使得本币贬值,到底是实际汇率还是名义汇率?

NO.PZ2023041102000025

问题如下:

Daltonia is a medium sized developing country. Naim Birol, Minister of Finance for Daltonia. Birol believes Daltonia needs to address a recent increase in inflation and appreciation in the exchange rate. Should these trends accelerate, the country’s present prosperity could be threatened. Birol and his colleague Pamuk discuss policy alternatives.Ÿ

Birol states: “Since Daltonia allows capital to flow freely, the clearest choice is to implement expansionary monetary and fiscal policies to stop the appreciation of the currency according to the Mundell–Fleming model.”Ÿ

Pamuk replies: “The long run solution to the problem, at least according to the portfolio balance approach, would be a policy choice by the Daltonian government to run large budget deficits on a sustained basis.”Ÿ

Birol adds: “There is also a timing dimension to consider. According to Dornbusch, with inflexible domestic prices in the short run, any decrease in nominal money supply will induce an increase in the domestic interest rate. This will encourage capital inflows and cause the exchange rate to overshoot to the upside in the short run, until domestic prices have a chance to react.”

Which of the statements regarding policy alternatives discussed between Birol and Pamuk in response to Daltonia’s recent increase in inflation and deterioration in exchange rate is least accurate?

选项:

A.Birol’s statement regarding Dornbusch

B.Pamuk’s statement regarding the portfolio balance approach

C.Birol’s statement regarding Mundell–Fleming

解释:

Birol’s statement regarding the Mundell–Fleming model is inaccurate because restrictive (not expansionary) fiscal policy, along with expansionary monetary policy, would lead to capital outflows and cause the currency to depreciate assuming high capital mobility.

这个知识点何老师在知识串讲时和讲此题讲解不一样

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2023年11月06日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


短期超调模型下,扩张的货币政策会使得本币贬值,到底是实际汇率还是名义汇率?

注意,这里名义汇率和实际汇率的方向是一致的,因为短期物价不变。

实际汇率 = 名义汇率/ 相对物价

由于相对物价在短期内不变,当名义汇率上升的时候,实际汇率也会上升。


Birol adds: “There is also a timing dimension to consider. According to Dornbusch, with inflexible domestic prices in the short run, any decrease in nominal money supply will induce an increase in the domestic interest rate. This will encourage capital inflows and cause the exchange rate to overshoot to the upside in the short run, until domestic prices have a chance to react.”


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