这个题为什么C不正确呢？

问题如下：

When Tom and his investment advisor Johnson talked about Monte Carlo simulations and expressed interest in learning more about them, Johnson provided an example in Exhibit 1. He explained that the model results were based on a conservative assumption of the client's risk profile, and he established multiple objectives over a 20-year time horizon. The confidence level of client to achieve their goals in 10, 15, and 20 years is set at 95 %, 85 %, and 75 %, respectively.

Based on Johnson's explanation of the Monte Carlo model and the information in Exhibit 1, the hypothetical client will most likely:

Exhibit 1:

Monte Carlo Simulation Results—Example

选项：

A.

achieve his or her goals.

B.

need to increase the amount of contributions toward the goal.

C.

need to adopt an investment strategy with higher expected returns.

解释：

B is correct. At 20 years, 70 % of the trials were successful, which is below the 75 % confidence level required by the client. Therefore, the client has an unacceptable risk of not achieving the 20-year goal. To increase the percentage of successful trials to meet or exceed the confidence level, customers need to increase their contribution to the goal.

A is incorrect. The number of successful trials was 99 % at 10 years and 88 % at 15 years, which were higher than the confidence levels of 95 % and 85 %, respectively. However, after 20 years, the number of successful trials was 70 %, which was below the confidence level of 75 %. Therefore, although there is an acceptable risk for clients to achieve their 10-year and 15-year goals, there is also an unacceptable risk of not achieving their 20-year goals.

C is incorrect. For clients with conservative risk profiles, adopting an investment strategy with higher expected returns and higher expected risks is not a practical solution.

B是正确的。在20年时，70%的试验是成功的，这低于客户要求的75%的置信水平。因此，客户有无法实现20年目标的不可接受的风险。为了提高成功试验的百分比以达到或超过置信水平，客户需要增加对目标的贡献。

A不正确。10年时，成功试验的数量为99%，15年时，试验的成功数量为88%，分别高于95%和85%的置信水平。然而，在20年后，成功的试验数量为70%，低于75%的置信水平。因此，尽管客户在实现10年和15年目标方面存在可接受的风险，但在未实现20年目标方面也存在不可接受的危险。

C不正确。对于风险状况保守的客户来说，采用具有更高预期回报和随之而来的更高预期风险的投资策略并不是一个切实可行的解决方案。