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Claire · 2023年10月19日

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NO.PZ202105270100000404

问题如下:

Based on Exhibit 2 and the anticipated effects of the monetary policy change, the expected annual return over a three-year investment horizon will most likely be:

选项:

A.lower than 2.00%.

B.approximately equal to 2.00%.

C.greater than 2.00%.

解释:

B is correct.

If the investment horizon equals the (Macaulay) duration of the portfolio, the capital loss created by the increase in yields and the reinvestment effects (gains) will roughly offset, leaving the realized return approximately equal to the original yield to maturity. This relationship is exact if (a) the yield curve is flat and (b) the change in rates occurs immediately in a single step. In practice, the relationship is only an approximation. In the case of the domestic sovereign yield curve, the 20 bp increase in rates will likely be offset by the higher reinvestment rate, creating an annual return approximately equal to 2.00%.

如果投资期限等于投资组合的(麦考利久期,收益率的增加和再投资效应(收益)造成的资本损失将大致抵消,使收益大致等于到期时的原始收益率。如果(a)收益率曲线是平坦的,并且(b)利率的变化立即在单一步骤中发生,则这种关系是准确的。实际上,这种关系只是一种近似。在国内主权收益曲线的情形中,20个基点的利率上升可能会被更高的再投资率所抵消,创造大约等于2.00%的年回报率。

为何20bp的上升会带来2%的预期收益?

1 个答案
已采纳答案

源_品职助教 · 2023年10月20日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


在咱们基础班讲义P116有这么一个结论,“If the investment horizon equals the (Macaulay) duration of the bond or portfolio

The capital gain/loss and reinvestment effects will roughly offset, leaving the realized return close to the original YTM.

本题其实就是直接套用了这个结论。表格2中显示投资期和Macaulay duration大约都等于3,所以所以收益约等于YTM=2%

至于为什么会有这个结论,何老师在课上也做了推导,请参考下图讲义(墨迹版讲义P213)及相关视频。



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