请教老师capiatl flow视角预测汇率变化 关于战略资产配置问题

NO.PZ2020012102000009 问题如下 A client haskehis aiser to explain the key consirations in forecasting exchange rates. The aiser’s firm uses two brocomplementary approaches when setting expectations for exchange rate movements, namely focus on tra in goo anservices an secony, focus on capitflows. Intify the main consirations ththe aiser shoulexplain to the client unr the two approaches. Unr the first approaanalysts focus on flows of export animports to establish whthe net tra flows are anhow large they are relative to the economy another, potentially larger fnancing aninvestment flows. The approaalso consirs fferences between mestic anforeign inflation rates threlate to the concept of purchasing power parity. Unr PPP, the expectepercentage change in the exchange rate shoulequthe fferenbetween inflation rates. The approaalso consirs the sustainability of current account imbalances, reflecting the fferenbetween nationsaving aninvestment. Unr the seconapproathe analysis focuses on capitflows anthe gree of capitmobility. It assumes thcapitseeks the highest risk-austereturn. The expectechanges in the exchange rate will reflethe fferences in the respective countries’ assets’ characteristisurelative short-term interest rates, term, cret, equity anliquity premiums. The approaalso consirs hot money flows anthe fathexchange rates provi across the boarmechanism for austing the relative sizes of eacountry’s portfolio of assets. 解析在第一种方法下，分析师关注进出口流动，以确定净贸易流动是多少，以及它们相对于经济和其他可能更大的贸易和投资流动的规模有多大。该方法还考虑了与购买力平价概念相关的国内和国外通胀率之间的差异。按购买力平价计算，汇率的预期变动百分比应等于通胀率之间的差额。该方法还考虑了经常账户失衡的可持续性，反映了国民储蓄和投资之间的差异。在第二种方法下，重点分析了资本流动和资本流动程度。它假定资本追求经风险调整后的最高回报。汇率的预期变动将反映各国资产的不同特征，如相对短期利率、期限、信贷、股本和流动性溢价。该方法还考虑了热钱流动和汇率提供了一个全面调整各国资产组合相对规模的机制这一事实。 如题？是否要背诵答案

NO.PZ2020012102000009 问题如下 A client haskehis aiser to explain the key consirations in forecasting exchange rates. The aiser’s firm uses two brocomplementary approaches when setting expectations for exchange rate movements, namely focus on tra in goo anservices an secony, focus on capitflows. Intify the main consirations ththe aiser shoulexplain to the client unr the two approaches. Unr the first approaanalysts focus on flows of export animports to establish whthe net tra flows are anhow large they are relative to the economy another, potentially larger fnancing aninvestment flows. The approaalso consirs fferences between mestic anforeign inflation rates threlate to the concept of purchasing power parity. Unr PPP, the expectepercentage change in the exchange rate shoulequthe fferenbetween inflation rates. The approaalso consirs the sustainability of current account imbalances, reflecting the fferenbetween nationsaving aninvestment. Unr the seconapproathe analysis focuses on capitflows anthe gree of capitmobility. It assumes thcapitseeks the highest risk-austereturn. The expectechanges in the exchange rate will reflethe fferences in the respective countries’ assets’ characteristisurelative short-term interest rates, term, cret, equity anliquity premiums. The approaalso consirs hot money flows anthe fathexchange rates provi across the boarmechanism for austing the relative sizes of eacountry’s portfolio of assets. 解析在第一种方法下，分析师关注进出口流动，以确定净贸易流动是多少，以及它们相对于经济和其他可能更大的贸易和投资流动的规模有多大。该方法还考虑了与购买力平价概念相关的国内和国外通胀率之间的差异。按购买力平价计算，汇率的预期变动百分比应等于通胀率之间的差额。该方法还考虑了经常账户失衡的可持续性，反映了国民储蓄和投资之间的差异。在第二种方法下，重点分析了资本流动和资本流动程度。它假定资本追求经风险调整后的最高回报。汇率的预期变动将反映各国资产的不同特征，如相对短期利率、期限、信贷、股本和流动性溢价。该方法还考虑了热钱流动和汇率提供了一个全面调整各国资产组合相对规模的机制这一事实。 Approa1 is from the current account perspective, key consiration is PPP will holin long term (means thfferenin nominexchange rate approximate equto fferenin expecteinflation rate.) anexchange rate movement will help to keep competiveness of internationtra (Means ththe exchange rate movement will suppot to maintain the competiveness ansubstainablity of current account).Approa2 is from captaccount perspective, key consiration is in short term exchange rate will overshooting, appreciate firstly, anthen investor will push up the require return for a risker expectation thloccurrenwill preciate in the future. anin the long run, fferenin exchange rate will approximate equto fferenin expectereturn fferenbetween mostic currenanforeign currency.

NO.PZ2020012102000009 问题如下 A client haskehis aiser to explain the key consirations in forecasting exchange rates. The aiser’s firm uses two brocomplementary approaches when setting expectations for exchange rate movements, namely focus on tra in goo anservices an secony, focus on capitflows. Intify the main consirations ththe aiser shoulexplain to the client unr the two approaches. Unr the first approaanalysts focus on flows of export animports to establish whthe net tra flows are anhow large they are relative to the economy another, potentially larger fnancing aninvestment flows. The approaalso consirs fferences between mestic anforeign inflation rates threlate to the concept of purchasing power parity. Unr PPP, the expectepercentage change in the exchange rate shoulequthe fferenbetween inflation rates. The approaalso consirs the sustainability of current account imbalances, reflecting the fferenbetween nationsaving aninvestment. Unr the seconapproathe analysis focuses on capitflows anthe gree of capitmobility. It assumes thcapitseeks the highest risk-austereturn. The expectechanges in the exchange rate will reflethe fferences in the respective countries’ assets’ characteristisurelative short-term interest rates, term, cret, equity anliquity premiums. The approaalso consirs hot money flows anthe fathexchange rates provi across the boarmechanism for austing the relative sizes of eacountry’s portfolio of assets. 解析在第一种方法下，分析师关注进出口流动，以确定净贸易流动是多少，以及它们相对于经济和其他可能更大的贸易和投资流动的规模有多大。该方法还考虑了与购买力平价概念相关的国内和国外通胀率之间的差异。按购买力平价计算，汇率的预期变动百分比应等于通胀率之间的差额。该方法还考虑了经常账户失衡的可持续性，反映了国民储蓄和投资之间的差异。在第二种方法下，重点分析了资本流动和资本流动程度。它假定资本追求经风险调整后的最高回报。汇率的预期变动将反映各国资产的不同特征，如相对短期利率、期限、信贷、股本和流动性溢价。该方法还考虑了热钱流动和汇率提供了一个全面调整各国资产组合相对规模的机制这一事实。 老师帮我看下这个两个方向的变化我理解的对吗current account, X-M, 如果X M,进口更多，进口是货物进本币出，要把本币换外币出去，所以对外币需求量增大，对本币需求量减少，外币升值2.出口更多，货物出去钱进来，进来的是外币，要换成本币，所以是本币升值。每次交换的进出口的钱都是外币。3.capitflow 如果是流进，那流进的是外币？外币进来要换成本币，所以对本币需求增大，本币升值吗？外币供给更多，外币贬值

NO.PZ2020012102000009 问题如下 A client haskehis aiser to explain the key consirations in forecasting exchange rates. The aiser’s firm uses two brocomplementary approaches when setting expectations for exchange rate movements, namely focus on tra in goo anservices an secony, focus on capitflows. Intify the main consirations ththe aiser shoulexplain to the client unr the two approaches. Unr the first approaanalysts focus on flows of export animports to establish whthe net tra flows are anhow large they are relative to the economy another, potentially larger fnancing aninvestment flows. The approaalso consirs fferences between mestic anforeign inflation rates threlate to the concept of purchasing power parity. Unr PPP, the expectepercentage change in the exchange rate shoulequthe fferenbetween inflation rates. The approaalso consirs the sustainability of current account imbalances, reflecting the fferenbetween nationsaving aninvestment. Unr the seconapproathe analysis focuses on capitflows anthe gree of capitmobility. It assumes thcapitseeks the highest risk-austereturn. The expectechanges in the exchange rate will reflethe fferences in the respective countries’ assets’ characteristisurelative short-term interest rates, term, cret, equity anliquity premiums. The approaalso consirs hot money flows anthe fathexchange rates provi across the boarmechanism for austing the relative sizes of eacountry’s portfolio of assets. 解析在第一种方法下，分析师关注进出口流动，以确定净贸易流动是多少，以及它们相对于经济和其他可能更大的贸易和投资流动的规模有多大。该方法还考虑了与购买力平价概念相关的国内和国外通胀率之间的差异。按购买力平价计算，汇率的预期变动百分比应等于通胀率之间的差额。该方法还考虑了经常账户失衡的可持续性，反映了国民储蓄和投资之间的差异。在第二种方法下，重点分析了资本流动和资本流动程度。它假定资本追求经风险调整后的最高回报。汇率的预期变动将反映各国资产的不同特征，如相对短期利率、期限、信贷、股本和流动性溢价。该方法还考虑了热钱流动和汇率提供了一个全面调整各国资产组合相对规模的机制这一事实。 因为感觉和老师上课讲的例题相比，似乎更灵活，更全面。觉得讲义上没有哪一个知识点可以很明显的对应上。这种题目算是考试中会出现的吗？所以是建议把答案背下来？看了答案也没看明白，这道题的答题思路和逻辑是？