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lcrcp3 · 2023年10月05日

如题

NO.PZ2023041004000097

问题如下:

Brown shares selected futures contract data for three markets in which the Apex Fund invests. The futures data are presented in Exhibit 2.


Menlo Bank recently released a report on the coffee market. Brown shares the key conclusion from the report with Musicale: “The coffee market had a global harvest that was greater than expected. Despite the large harvest, coffee futures trading activity is balanced between producers and consumers. This balanced condition is not expected to change over the next year.”

Based on the key conclusion from the Menlo Bank coffee market report, the shape of the coffee futures curve in Exhibit 2 is most consistent with the:

选项:

A.insurance theory.

B.theory of storage.

C.hedging pressure hypothesis.

解释:

The theory of storage focuses on the level of commodity invento­ries and the state of supply and demand. A commodity that is regularly stored should have a higher price in the future (contango) to account for those storage costs. Because coffee is a commodity that requires storage, its higher future price is consistent with the theory of storage.

能用各一句话说一下这三个选项分别是什么意思吗,说的越简单越好,题能做对就行(不是只局限于这道题),不要大段说一些听不懂的晦涩的话,就说核心特点怎么区分,什么情况选A,什么情况选B,什么情况选C。

1 个答案
已采纳答案

pzqa35 · 2023年10月06日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


这三个理论都是研究期货价格和现货价格的关系。对于大宗商品而言,producer和consumer都有对冲的需求,当然producer的对冲需求是更大的,因为他一定要在某段时间把东西卖出去,但是consumer相对来说选择权更多一点。

insurance theory:这个理论的前提条件是producer现在持有现货,需要进行对冲,producer和speculator之间签合约。在按照正常情况下,期货的价格应该定到FP,但是由于producer着急寻找对手方,就会在FP的基础上进行打折,所以这种情况会产生backwardation的一个情况。

theory of storage:这个理论是说Futures price = Spot price+ Storage costs - convenience yield,从定价公式来看,当Storage costs上升时,会使得FP上升,更容易出现contango;但是当convenience yield上升时,FP会下降,更容易出现backwardation。

hedging pressure hypothesis:这个理论是producer和consumer之间签合约,双方都是对冲的目的。Producer是short futures,consumer是long futures,如果producer大于consumer,就会造成futures价格下跌,即backwardation;如果consumer大于producer,那么futures价格就会上升,即contango;如果consumer等于producer,那么futures价格就会持平。

这道题中根据表2可以看到咖啡目前是处于contango的一个状态,所以insurance theory是不符合的,同时题目中表述:coffee futures trading activity is balanced between producers and consumers. This balanced condition is not expected to change over the next year,说明也不是hedging pressure hypothesis。那么coffee的丰收会使得储存的成本上升,最终产生了contango,所以B项是对的。

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